Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Regime switches in the Sino-American co-dependency: Growth and structural change in China

Contents:

Author Info

  • Bonatti, Luigi
  • Fracasso, Andrea

Abstract

We present a two-country two-stage growth model capturing several salient features of the special US–China relationship and reproducing the process of export-led growth and structural change in China. In phase 1, China accumulates and sterilizes US assets (and finances US consumption) as it pegs the renminbi to the dollar at an undervalued level, thus stimulating the domestic production of tradables, compressing domestic consumption and facilitating the transition of surplus labor into the modern sectors of the economy. In phase 2, we analyze possible future scenarios. In Scenario A, the Chinese fiscal policy is effective in partially substituting exports by shifting the domestic demand toward tradables. Scenario B emphasizes the risks for China of abandoning too early the pegging. Scenario C shows that the Chinese continuation of an export-led growth strategy is economically feasible.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X13000052
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Structural Change and Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 25 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 1-32

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:25:y:2013:i:c:p:1-32

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/525148

Related research

Keywords: Sino-American co-dependency; Growth models; Structural change; Global imbalances;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2007. "Assessing China’s Exchange Rate Regime," CEPR Discussion Papers 6264, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Chamon, Marcos & Prasad, Eswar, 2007. "Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?," IZA Discussion Papers 3191, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Gabriel Porcile & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2006. "Real Exchange Rate And Elasticity Of Labor Supply In A Balance-Of-Payments-Constrained Macrodynamics," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 11, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  4. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2008. "New Estimation of China's Exchange Rate Regime," Working Paper Series rwp08-077, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  5. Holz, Carsten A., 2008. "China's Economic Growth 1978-2025: What We Know Today About China's Economic Growth Tomorrow," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1665-1691, October.
  6. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2004. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Working Papers 10869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2005. "International Financial Adjustment," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt124628cx, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  8. Emanuele Baldacci & Ding Ding & David Coady & Giovanni Callegari & Pietro Tommasino & Jaejoon Woo & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2010. "Public Expenditureson Social Programs and Household Consumption in China," IMF Working Papers 10/69, International Monetary Fund.
  9. de Vries, Gaaitzen J. & Erumban, Abdul A. & Timmer, Marcel P. & Voskoboynikov, Ilya & Wu, Harry X., 2012. "Deconstructing the BRICs: Structural transformation and aggregate productivity growth," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 211-227.
  10. Hui Tong & Shang-Jin Wei & Tamim Bayoumi, 2010. "The Chinese Corporate Savings Puzzle," IMF Working Papers 10/275, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Eichengreen, Barry, 2006. "Global imbalances: The new economy, the dark matter, the savvy investor, and the standard analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 645-652, September.
  12. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Net Foreign Asset Positions and Consumption Dynamics in the International Economy," IMF Working Papers 05/82, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2003. "An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System," NBER Working Papers 9971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Zheng, Jinghai & Bigsten, Arne & Hu, Angang, 2006. "Can China’s Growth be Sustained? A Productivity Perspective," Working Papers in Economics 236, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  15. Silva, Ester G. & Teixeira, Aurora A.C., 2008. "Surveying structural change: Seminal contributions and a bibliometric account," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 273-300, December.
  16. Golley, Jane & Meng, Xin, 2011. "Has China run out of surplus labour?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 555-572.
  17. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2012. "The costs of rebalancing the China-US co-dependency," Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, Vita e Pensiero, Pubblicazioni dell'Universita' Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, vol. 120(1), pages 59-106.
  18. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2007. "The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation," NBER Working Papers 12850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1997. "International Macroeconomic Dynamics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262201119, December.
  20. Christopher Garroway & Burcu Hacibedel & Helmut Reisen & Edouard Turkisch, 2012. "The Renminbi and Poor‐country Growth," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 273-294, 03.
  21. Nicholas R. Lardy, 2006. "China: Toward a Consumption-Driven Growth Path," Policy Briefs PB06-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  22. Jeanne, Olivier & Rancière, Romain, 2008. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves For Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications," CEPR Discussion Papers 6723, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Farhi, Emmanuel & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, 2008. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," Scholarly Articles 3229094, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  24. Baldwin, Richard & Seghezza, Elena, 1996. "Trade-induced Investment-led Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1420, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. Razmi, Arslan & Rapetti, Martin & Skott, Peter, 2012. "The real exchange rate and economic development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 151-169.
  26. Marco G. Ercolani & Zheng Wei, 2011. "An Empirical Analysis of China's Dualistic Economic Development: 1965–2009," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 10(3), pages 1-29, October.
  27. Rodrik, Dani, 2010. "Making Room for China in the World Economy," Scholarly Articles 5341587, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  28. Eswar Prasad & Raghuram Rajan, 2006. "Modernizing China's Growth Paradigm," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 06/03, International Monetary Fund.
  29. Seghezza, Elena & Baldwin, Richard E., 2008. "Testing for Trade-Induced Investment-Led Growth," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 61(2-3), pages 507-537.
  30. Louis Kuijs & Tao Wang, 2006. "China's Pattern of Growth: Moving to Sustainability and Reducing Inequality," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14.
  31. Huang Yiping, 2010. "Dissecting the China Puzzle : Asymmetric Liberalization and Cost Distortion," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22874, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  32. Zhang, Xiaobo & Yang, Jin & Wang, Shenglin, 2010. "China has reached the lewis turning point," IFPRI discussion papers 977, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  33. Knight, John & Deng, Quheng & Li, Shi, 2011. "The puzzle of migrant labour shortage and rural labour surplus in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 585-600.
  34. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2010. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies," Handbook of Development Economics, Elsevier.
  35. Ding, Sai & Knight, John, 2009. "Can the augmented Solow model explain China's remarkable economic growth? A cross-country panel data analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 432-452, September.
  36. William R. Cline & John Williamson, 2010. "Notes on Equilibrium Exchange Rates: January 2010," Policy Briefs PB10-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  37. Felipe Meza & Carlos Urrutia, 2010. "Financial Liberalization, Structural Change, and Real Exchange Rate Appreciations," IMF Working Papers 10/63, International Monetary Fund.
  38. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2006. "Rebalancing Growth in China: A Three-Handed Approach," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(4), pages 1-20.
  39. Paulo Gala, 2008. "Real exchange rate levels and economic development: theoretical analysis and econometric evidence," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 273-288, March.
  40. Robert J. Barro, 2012. "Inflation and Economic Growth," CEMA Working Papers 568, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  41. Tamim Bayoumi & Hui Tong & Shang-Jin Wei, 2012. "The Chinese Corporate Savings Puzzle: A Firm-level Cross-Country Perspective," NBER Chapters, in: Capitalizing China, pages 283-308 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  42. Blanchard, Olivier J & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2010. "Global Imbalances: In Midstream?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7693, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  43. Joshua Aizenman & Reuven Glick, 2009. "Sterilization, Monetary Policy, and Global Financial Integration," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 777-801, 09.
  44. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2008. "Financial versus Monetary Mercantilism: Long-run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 593-611, 05.
  45. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
  46. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Hoarding of international reserves in China: Mercantilism, domestic consumption and US monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1044-1078.
  47. Michael Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2009. "Bretton Woods Ii Still Defines The International Monetary System," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 297-311, 08.
  48. Ge, Suqin & Yang, Dennis Tao, 2011. "Labor market developments in China: A neoclassical view," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 611-625.
  49. McMillan, Margaret & Rodrik, Dani, 2012. "Globalization, structural change, and productivity growth:," IFPRI discussion papers 1160, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  50. Holz, Carsten A., 2011. "The unbalanced growth hypothesis and the role of the state: The case of China's state-owned enterprises," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 220-238, November.
  51. Damiano Sandri & Pau Rabanal & Isabelle Méjean, 2011. "Current Account Rebalancing and Real Exchange Rate Adjustment Between the U.S. and Emerging Asia," IMF Working Papers 11/46, International Monetary Fund.
  52. Kai Guo & Papa N'Diaye, 2009. "Is China's Export-Oriented Growth Sustainable?," IMF Working Papers 09/172, International Monetary Fund.
  53. Mai Dao & Ruo Chen, 2011. "The Real Exchange Rate and Employment in China," IMF Working Papers 11/148, International Monetary Fund.
  54. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2010. "Real Exchange Rate, Mercantilism And The Learning By Doing Externality," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 324-335, 08.
  55. Ronald McKinnon, 2006. "China's Exchange Rate Trap: Japan Redux?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 427-431, May.
  56. Knight, John & Wang, Wei, 2011. "China’s Macroeconomic Imbalances: Causes and Consequences," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  57. Jahangir Aziz, 2006. "Rebalancing China's Economy," IMF Working Papers 06/291, International Monetary Fund.
  58. Prasad, Eswar, 2007. "Is the Chinese Growth Miracle Built to Last?," IZA Discussion Papers 2995, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  59. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
  60. THORBECKE, Willem & Hanjiang ZHANG, 2008. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on China's Labor-Intensive Manufacturing Exports," Discussion papers 08038, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  61. Ronald Ian McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "China and its Dollar Exchange Rate: A Worldwide Stabilizing Influence?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3449, CESifo Group Munich.
  62. Yiping Huang & Xun Wang, 2011. "Does Financial Repression Inhibit or Facilitate Economic Growth? A Case Study of Chinese Reform Experience," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73, pages 833-855, December.
  63. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The revived Bretton Woods system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 307-313.
  64. Hua, Ping, 2007. "Real exchange rate and manufacturing employment in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 335-353.
  65. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2010. "Global Rebalancing and the Future of the Sino-US Codependency," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(s1), pages 70-87.
  66. Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti & Zheng Song, 2009. "Growing like China," 2009 Meeting Papers 912, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  67. Coudert, Virginie & Couharde, Cecile, 2007. "Real equilibrium exchange rate in China is the renminbi undervalued?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 568-594, August.
  68. Philip Lane & Sergio Schmukler, 2007. "The Evolving Role of China and India in the Global Financial System," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 499-520, September.
  69. Vendryes, Thomas, 2011. "Migration constraints and development: Hukou and capital accumulation in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 669-692.
  70. Lipschitz, Leslie & Rochon, Céline & Verdier, Geneviève, 2011. "A real model of transitional growth and competitiveness in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 267-283, August.
  71. Xianguo Yao & Minghai Zhou, 2011. "China’s Economic and Trade Development: Imbalance to Equilibrium," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(12), pages 2081-2096, December.
  72. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The Revived Bretton Woods System: The Effects of Periphery Intervention and Reserve Management on Interest Rates & Exchange Rates in Center Countries," NBER Working Papers 10332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  73. Niall Ferguson & Moritz Schularick, 2011. "The End of Chimerica," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 1-26, 04.
  74. Qi, Li & Prime, Penelope B., 2009. "Market reforms and consumption puzzles in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 388-401, September.
  75. Robert Dekle & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2010. "Whither Chinese Growth? A Sectoral Growth Accounting Approach," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(s1), pages 487-498, 08.
  76. Rudolfs Bems, 2008. "Aggregate Investment Expenditureson Tradable and Nontradable Goods," IMF Working Papers 08/45, International Monetary Fund.
  77. Szirmai, Adam, 2012. "Industrialisation as an engine of growth in developing countries, 1950–2005," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 406-420.
  78. Feltenstein, Andrew & Rochon, Céline & Shamloo, Maral, 2010. "High growth and low consumption in East Asia: How to improve welfare while avoiding financial failures," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 25-36, January.
  79. Korinek, Anton & Serven, Luis, 2010. "Undervaluation through foreign reserve accumulation : static losses, dynamic gains," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5250, The World Bank.
  80. Andrew Berg & Yanliang Miao, 2010. "The Real Exchange Rate and Growth Revisited," IMF Working Papers 10/58, International Monetary Fund.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2014. "Modeling the Transition Towards Renminbi's Full Convertibility: Implications for China’s Growth," MPRA Paper 54129, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:25:y:2013:i:c:p:1-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.