This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Francis E. Warnock
Veronica C. Warnock
Abstract

Abstract: Foreign flows have an economically large and statistically significant impact on longterm interest rates. Controlling for various macroeconomic factors we estimate that had there been no foreign flows into U.S. bonds over the past year, the 10-year Treasury yield would currently be 150 basis points higher; even a step-down to average inflows would imply an increase of 105 basis points. The impact of the headline-making foreign official flows—a relatively small subset of total foreign accumulation of U.S. bonds—is also significant but markedly smaller. Our results are robust to a number of alternative specifications.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.tcd.ie/iiis/documents/discussion/pdfs/iiisdp103.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by IIIS in its series The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series with number iiisdp103.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 15 Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp103

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 01
Phone: 00 353 1 896 3888
Fax: 00 353 1 896 3939
Web page: http://www.tcd.ie/iiis/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Eva Mateo).

Related research
Keywords: bond yields; Japan; China;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Francis X. Diebold & Monika Piazzesi & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Modeling bond yields in finance and macroeconomics," Working Paper Series 2005-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. T. Clifton Green, 2004. "Economic News and the Impact of Trading on Bond Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1201-1234, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Martin Evans & Richard Lyons, 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance, Working Paper Series 1007, Research Program in Finance, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2004-2), pages 1-100. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Eric M. Engen & R. Glenn Hubbard, 2004. "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 10681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2003. "The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates: evidence and implications for macroeconomic models," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2006. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Anusha Chari & Peter Blair Henry, 2004. "Risk Sharing and Asset Prices: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1295-1324, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Peter Blair Henry, 2003. "Capital-Account Liberalization, the Cost of Capital, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 91-96, May. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The Revived Bretton Woods System: The Effects of Periphery Intervention and Reserve Management on Interest Rates & Exchange Rates in Center Countries," NBER Working Papers 10332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Martin D. D. Evans, 2001. "FX Trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 8116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 667, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March. [Downloadable!]
  14. Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Yields and the Federal Reserve," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 311-344, April.
  15. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Henry, Peter Blair, 2000. "Do stock market liberalizations cause investment booms?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 301-334. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2005. "Does financial liberalization spur growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 3-55, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Yash P. Mehra, 1998. "The bond rate and actual future inflation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 27-47. [Downloadable!]
  20. Menzie Chinn & Jeffrey Frankel, 2003. "The Euro Area and World Interest Rates," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series 1031, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  21. Thomas Laubach, 2003. "New evidence on the interest rate effects of budget deficits and debt," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  22. Baker, Malcolm & Greenwood, Robin & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2003. "The maturity of debt issues and predictable variation in bond returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 261-291, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2004. "The performance of international portfolios," International Finance Discussion Papers 817, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2006. "Impact of globalization on monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 265-305. [Downloadable!]
  2. David Hauner & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Interest Rates--How Sustainable Is the "New Economy"?," IMF Working Papers 06/112, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The bond yield "conundrum" from a macro-finance perspective," Working Paper Series 2006-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Francis E. Warnock, 2006. "How Might a Disorderly Resolution of Global Imbalances Affect Global Wealth?," IMF Working Papers 06/170, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2006. "The External Wealth of Nations Mark II: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 1970-2004," CEPR Discussion Papers 5644, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Marie Brière & Ombretta Signori & Kokou Topeglo, 2006. "Bond Market “Conundrum”: New Factors Explaining Long-term Interest Rates?," Working Papers CEB 06-024.RS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB). [Downloadable!]
  7. Hume, Michael & Sentance, Andrew, 2009. "The global credit boom: challenges for macroeconomics and policy," Discussion Papers 27, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  8. W. Christopher Walker & Maria Teresa Punzi, 2007. "Financing of Global Imbalances," IMF Working Papers 07/177, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Caroline Freund & Frank Warnock, 2005. "Current Account Deficits in Industrial Countries: The Bigger They are, the Harder They Fall?," NBER Working Papers 11823, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Yash P. Mehra, 2006. "Inflation uncertainty and the recent low level of the long bond rate," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 225-253. [Downloadable!]
  11. Guy Meredith, 2007. "Debt Dynamics and Global Imbalances: Some Conventional Views Reconsidered," IMF Working Papers 07/4, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. Sharon Kozicki & Gordon Sellon, 2005. "Longer-term perspectives on the yield curve and monetary policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 5-33. [Downloadable!]
  13. Bank for International Settlements, 2008. "FX reserve management: trends and challenges," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 40, 11. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Apart from a small start up grant in the 1990's, RePEc has received no funding and lives on the help of volunteers.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-23.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.