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The EMS Crisis in Retrospect

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  • Barry Eichengreen

Abstract

This paper reconsiders the 1992-3 crisis in the European Monetary System in light of its emerging market successors. That episode was a predecessor of the Mexican and Asian crises in the sense that both capital movements and domestic financial fragility placed important roles. The output effects of this currency crisis resemble those of the typical emerging market crisis as much as they do the moderate effects of the typical industrial-country event of its kind to take place in an environment of fully free capital mobility. Leading indicator models' constructed using data from the Tequila and the Asian flu are shown to do a surprisingly good job at backcasting' which European countries suffered currency instability in 1992-3, although these models also point to what was distinctive about the European case.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8035.

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Date of creation: Dec 2000
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8035

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Cited by:
  1. Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2006. "International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 12560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 2002. "The Role of Large Players in Currency Crises," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 197-268 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2008. "The Rise and Fall of Spanish Unemployment: A Chain Reaction Theory Perspective," Working Papers 633, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  4. Eduard Hochreiter & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Georg Winckler, 2002. "Monetary Union: European Lessons, Latin American Prospects," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 167, Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Ledesma Rodríguez, Francisco J. & Ibáñez, Manuel Navarro & Pérez Rodríguez, Jorge V. & Rivero, Simón Sosvilla, 2005. "Regímenes cambiarios de iure y de facto. El caso de la peseta/dólar, 1965–1998," Revista de Historia Económica, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(03), pages 541-561, December.
  6. Yeh, Kuo-chun & Ho, Tai-kuang, 2011. "ERM crisis in retrospect: What if a European central bank had been in existence before 1992?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1526-1535, July.
  7. Francisco Ledesma-Rodriguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibanez & Jorge Perez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2011. "Implicit bands in the yen/dollar exchange rate," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 43(10), pages 1241-1255.
  8. Matthieu Bussi�re, 2013. "Balance of payment crises in emerging markets: how early were the ‘early’ warning signals?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 45(12), pages 1601-1623, April.
  9. Volz, Ulrich, 2006. "On the feasibility of a regional exchange rate system for East Asia: Lessons of the 1992/1993 EMS crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 1107-1127, December.
  10. Mandilaras, Alex & Bird, Graham, 2010. "A Markov switching analysis of contagion in the EMS," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1062-1075, October.
  11. Iancu, Aurel, 2011. "Models of Financial System Fragility," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 230-256, March.
  12. Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, . "Regímenes cambiarios de facto y de iure. Una aplicación al tipo de cambio yen/dólar," Working Papers 2004-10, FEDEA.

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