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The EMS Crisis in Retrospect

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Author Info
Barry Eichengreen

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Abstract

This paper reconsiders the 1992-3 crisis in the European Monetary System in light of its emerging market successors. That episode was a predecessor of the Mexican and Asian crises in the sense that both capital movements and domestic financial fragility placed important roles. The output effects of this currency crisis resemble those of the typical emerging market crisis as much as they do the moderate effects of the typical industrial-country event of its kind to take place in an environment of fully free capital mobility. Leading indicator models' constructed using data from the Tequila and the Asian flu are shown to do a surprisingly good job at backcasting' which European countries suffered currency instability in 1992-3, although these models also point to what was distinctive about the European case.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8035.

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Date of creation: Dec 2000
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8035

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F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations

References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Rose, Andrew K. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1994. "European exchange rate credibility before the fall," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1185-1216, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Berg, Claes, 2000. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: The Swedish Experience," Working Paper Series 100, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  4. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1992. "Macroeconomic Adjustment Under Bretton Woods and the Post-Bretton-Woods Float: An Impulse- Response Analysis," Economics Working Papers 92-201, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Campa, J.M. & Chang, P.H.K., 1995. "Arbitrage-Based Tests of Target Zone Credibility: Evidence from ERM Cross-Rate Options," Papers 95-25, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
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  6. Catherine A. Pattillo & Andrew Berg, 1998. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Working Papers 98/154, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Christian B. Mulder & Matthieu Bussiere, 1999. "External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies - How High Liquidity Can Offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion," IMF Working Papers 99/88, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Richard H. Clarida & Mark Gertler, 1997. "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 363-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1984. "Gold Monetization and Gold Discipline," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(1), pages 90-107, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Inci Ötker & Hugh Bredenkamp & A. Javier Hamann & Esteban Jadresic & R. B. Johnston & Paul R. Masson & Barry J. Eichengreen, 1998. "Exit Strategies: Policy Options for Countries Seeking Exchange Rate Flexibility," IMF Occasional Papers 168, International Monetary Fund.
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  19. Willman, Alpo, 1988. "The collapse of the fixed exchange rate regime with sticky wages and imperfect substitutability between domestic and foreign bonds," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1817-1838, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2006. "Implicit Bands in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," Working Papers 2006-19, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Matthieu Bussière, 2007. "Balance of payment crises in emerging markets - how early were the “early” warning signals?," Working Paper Series 713, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2006. "International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 12560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Eduard Hochreiter & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Georg Winckler, 2002. "Monetary Union: European Lessons, Latin American Prospects," Working Papers 68, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, . "Regímenes cambiarios de facto y de iure. Una aplicación al tipo de cambio yen/dólar," Working Papers 2004-10, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector, 2008. "The Rise and Fall of Spanish Unemployment: A Chain Reaction Theory Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 3712, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Francisco J. Ledesma-Rodríguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & Jorge V. Pérez-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, . "Regímenes cambiarios de iure y de facto. El caso de la Peseta/Dólar, 1965-1998," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 05-03, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 2001. "The Role of Large Players in Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 8303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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