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The contribution of us bond demand to the us bond yield conundrum of 2004 to 2007: an empirical investigation

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  • Thomas Goda

    ()

  • Photis Lysandrou

    ()

  • Chris Stewart

    ()

Abstract

Although the federal funds rate started rising from mid-2004 US long term rates continued to fall. A likely contributory factor to this conundrum was the contemporaneous increase in US bond demand. Using ARDL-based models, which accommodate structural breaks, this paper estimates the impact of demand on US bond yields in the conundrum period. This impact is shown to have been everywhere significantly negative. The fact that our model fully explains the bond yield conundrum gives support to the hypothesis that the US CDO market was rapidly expanded before 2007 chiefly to absorb the overspill of global demand for safe assets.

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File URL: http://repository.eafit.edu.co/bitstream/10784/741/1/2011_13_Thomas_Goda.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by UNIVERSIDAD EAFIT in its series DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO CIEF with number 010719.

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Length: 40
Date of creation: 14 Dec 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000122:010719

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Related research

Keywords: ARDL; bond yields; bond yield conundrum; bond demand; subprime crisis ; structural breaks;

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References

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  1. Bandholz, Harm & Clostermann, Joerg & Seitz, Franz, 2007. "Explaining the US Bond Yield Conundrum," MPRA Paper 2386, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  3. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
  4. Thomas Laubach, 2009. "New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 858-885, 06.
  5. De Loubens, A. & Idier, J. & Jardet, C., 2007. "Determinants of long-term interest rates in the United States and the euro area: A multivariate approach," Working papers 170, Banque de France.
  6. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2007. "The Demand for Treasury Debt," NBER Working Papers 12881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2010. "The "Other" Imbalance and the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 15636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Mahieu, R.J. & Raes, L.B.D., 2010. "The Bond Yield Conundrum: Alternative Hypotheses and the State of the Economy," Discussion Paper 2010-121, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
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Cited by:
  1. Thomas Goda & Photis Lysandrou, 2011. "The contribution of wealth concentration to the subprime crisis: a quantitative estimation," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO CIEF 010718, UNIVERSIDAD EAFIT.

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