Determinants of long-term interest rates in the United States and the euro area: A multivariate approach
AbstractThis article looks at the factors explaining the level of US and European long-term interest rates between 1986 and 2005. We begin by selecting the structural determinants of long-term interest rates, dealing with the US and European cases separately. However, a univariate framework cannot capture market integration and suffers from a number of statistical limitations. Switching to a multivariate setting reveals spillover from US to euro area long-term yields, with no reciprocal effect. The model allows us to draw up a timeline of events affecting the level of US and European long-term interest rates. Accordingly, the bursting of the internet bubble, purchases by foreign agents, both official and private, and the increase in global liquidity all seemingly exerted downward pressure on US long-term interest rates and, indirectly, on euro area long rates.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 170.
Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Long term interest rates ; Conundrum; Multivariate model.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
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