The role of macroeconomic policies in the global crisis
AbstractThis paper argues that the lack of timely and decisive policy action to correct domestic and external imbalances contributed crucially to the build-up of financial excesses that led to the financial crisis and the Great Recession. We focus on 2002–2007 and perform a number of counterfactual simulations to investigate two central elements of the story, namely: (a) an over-expansionary US monetary policy and the absence of effective macro-prudential supervision, which permitted a prolonged expansion of debt-financed consumer spending and (b) the choice by China and other emerging countries to pursue an export-led growth strategy supported by pegging their currencies to the US dollar, in conjunction with sluggish domestic demand in major advanced economies characterized by low potential output growth. The results of the simulations lend support to the view that if substantial, globally coordinated demand rebalancing had been undertaken early on, the macroeconomic and financial imbalances would not have accumulated to the extent that they did and the financial turmoil might have had less drastic global consequences.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.
Volume (Year): 33 (2011)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735
Global imbalances; Financial crisis; Monetary policy; Macroprudential regulation; Structural reforms;
Other versions of this item:
- Pietro Catte & Pietro Cova & Patrizio Pagano & Ignazio Visco, 2010. "The role of macroeconomic policies in the global crisis," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 69, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
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