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The Impact of Demographic Change on Human Capital Accumulation

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Author Info
Michael Fertig
Christoph M. Schmidt
Mathias G. Sinning

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Abstract

This paper investigates whether and to what extent demographic change has an impact on human capital accumulation. The effect of the relative cohort size on educational attainment of young adults in Germany is analyzed utilizing data from the German Socio-Economic Panel for West-German individuals of the birth cohorts 1966 to 1986. These are the cohorts which entered the labor market since the 1980's. Particular attention is paid to the effect of changes in labor market conditions, which constitute an important channel through which demographic change may affect human capital accumulation. Our findings suggest that the variables measuring demographic change exert a considerable though heterogeneous impact on the human capital accumulation of young Germans. Changing labor market conditions during the 1980's and 1990's exhibit a sizeable impact on both the highest schooling and the highest professional degree obtained by younger cohorts.

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Paper provided by Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 608.

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Date of creation: Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:auu:dpaper:608

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Related research
Keywords: Demographic Change; Schooling; Vocational Training;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts
J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models

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  1. Finis Welch, 1979. "Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings: The Baby Boom Babies' Financial Bust," UCLA Economics Working Papers 146, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Richard B. Freeman, 1980. "The Effect of Demographic Factors on Age-Earnings Profiles," NBER Working Papers 0316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Wright, Robert E, 1991. "Cohort Size and Earnings in Great Britain," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 295-305, November.
  4. Clark, Damon, 2002. "The Impact of Local Labour Market Conditions on Participation in Further Education in England," IZA Discussion Papers 550, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  5. Klevmarken, N Anders, 1993. "Demographics and the Dynamics of Earnings," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 105-22, May.
  6. Connelly, Rachel & Gottschalk, Peter, 1995. "The Effect of Cohort Composition on Human Capital Accumulation across Generations," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(1), pages 155-76, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Welch, Finis, 1979. "Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings: The Baby Boom Babies' Financial Bust," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages S65-97, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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