Cohort Size and Youth Earnings: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment
AbstractIn this paper, I use data from the Canadian Labour Force Surveys (LFS), and the 2001 and 2006 Canadian Censuses to estimate the impact of an important labor supply shock on the earnings of young high-school graduates. The abolition of Ontarioâ€™s Grade 13 generated a â€˜doubleâ€™ cohort of high-school graduates that simultaneously entered the Ontario labor market, generating a large and sudden increase in the labor supply. This provides a rare occasion to measure the impact of cohort size on earnings without the supply shock being possibly confounded with unobserved trendsâ€”a recurring problem in the literature. The Census findings suggest that the effect of the supply shock is statistically and economically important, depressing weekly earnings by 5 to 9 percent. The findings from Census are supported by the LFS results which suggest that the immediate impact of the supply shockâ€”measured about six months after high-school graduationâ€”is also important.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Vancouver School of Economics in its series CLSSRN working papers with number clsrn_admin-2011-28.
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 28 Nov 2011
Date of revision: 28 Nov 2011
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.clsrn.econ.ubc.ca/
Labor Supply Shock; Youth;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
- J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
- J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-12-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-LAB-2011-12-13 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-LMA-2011-12-13 (Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, & Wages)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Diane Macunovich, 1999.
"The Fortune of One's Birth: Relative Cohort Size and the Youth Labor Market in the United States,"
Center for Policy Research Working Papers
6, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
- Diane J. Macunovich, 1999. "The fortunes of one's birth: Relative cohort size and the youth labor market in the United States," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 215-272.
- Adriana Kugler & Mutlu Yuksel, 2008.
"Effects of Low-Skilled Immigration on U.S. Natives: Evidence from Hurricane Mitch,"
NBER Working Papers
14293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Adriana Kugler & Mutlu Yuksel, 2008. "Effects of Low-Skilled Immigration on U.S. Natives: Evidence from Hurricane Mitch," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0809, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
- Kugler, Adriana & Yuksel, Mutlu, 2008. "Effects of Low-Skilled Immigration on U.S. Natives: Evidence from Hurricane Mitch," IZA Discussion Papers 3670, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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