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The effects of cohort size on European earnings

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  • Giorgio Brunello

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Abstract

I use the cross-country and time variation in the demographic structure of 11 European countries to study how changes in cohort size affect real earnings in Europe. This is an important question in the light of widespread population ageing. I find that cohort size has a negative and statistically significant effect on earnings, and that this effect is larger for the older age group - aged between 35 and 54 - than for the younger group - aged 20 to 34. I also find that earnings are more sensible to changes in cohort size in Southern Europe, which points to a lower degree of substitutability between individuals with the same education but different age. I argue that the uncovered lower substitutability in the Olive Belt of Europe is in line with the higher employment protection that its workers enjoy, at least compared to the workers located in Northern Europe. One important policy implication of this study is that the demographic shift away from the young and toward the old, a baby bust after a baby boom, is likely to tilt age - earnings profiles in favor of the young more in Southern than in Northern Europe.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00148-009-0250-y
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Population Economics.

Volume (Year): 23 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 273-290

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Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:23:y:2010:i:1:p:273-290

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Related research

Keywords: Cohort size; Wages; Europe; J11; J31;

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References

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  1. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2003. "Macroeconomic Effects Of Regulation And Deregulation In Goods And Labor Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(3), pages 879-907, August.
  2. Wright, Robert E, 1991. "Cohort Size and Earnings in Great Britain," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 295-305, November.
  3. Nickell, S. & Layard, R., 1997. "Labour Market Institutions and Economic Performance," Papers 23, Centre for Economic Performance & Institute of Economics.
  4. Stapleton, David C & Young, Douglas J, 1988. "Educational Attainment and Cohort Size," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(3), pages 330-61, July.
  5. Giuseppe Bertola & Francine Blau & Lawrence Kahn, 2007. "Labor market institutions and demographic employment patterns," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 833-867, October.
  6. Juan F. Jimeno & Diego Rodríguez-Palenzuela, . "Youth unemployment in the OECD: Demographic shifts, labour market institutions, and macroeconomic shocks," Working Papers 2002-15, FEDEA.
  7. Franco Peracchi, 2002. "The European Community Household Panel: A review," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 63-90.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Devereux, Paul J. & Fan, Wen, 2011. "Earnings returns to the British education expansion," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1153-1166.
  2. Budría, Santiago & Pereira, Pedro T., 2005. "Educational Qualifications and Wage Inequality: Evidence for Europe," IZA Discussion Papers 1763, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Guido Schwerdt & Jarkko Turunen, 2007. "Changes in Human Capital: Implications for Productivity Growth in the Euro Area," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 53, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  4. Morin, Louis-Philippe, 2011. "Cohort Size and Youth Earnings: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment," CLSRN Working Papers clsrn_admin-2011-28, UBC Department of Economics, revised 28 Nov 2011.
  5. Ernesto Friedrich de Lima Amaral & Joseph E. Potter & Daniel Hamermesh & Eduardo Rios Neto, 2013. "Age, education, and earnings in the course of Brazilian development: Does composition matter?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(20), pages 581-612, March.

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