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Gerontocracy in Motion? European Cross-Country Evidence on the Labor Market Consequences of Population Ageing

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  • Fertig, Michael

    ()
    (ISG, Cologne)

  • Schmidt, Christoph M.

    ()
    (RWI)

Abstract

Taking a European cross-country perspective, this paper addresses the most important issues in the nexus of population ageing and labor markets. We start from a descriptive overview of the demographic change currently shaping European societies. The subsequent section intensively discusses the potential consequences of these demographic processes for and interdependencies with the labor market situation in Europe. We place particular emphasis on the issue of non-competitive wage setting. In our empirical application we demonstrate that moderately large birth cohorts seem to experience lower employment rates, but also that education investments might be able to mitigate these consequences, and that the relative economic success of large cohorts might even be disproportionately positive. Finally, in the concluding section we review possible policy options for coping with the consequences of population ageing.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 956.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in: Wright, Robert E. (ed.), Scotland's Demographic Challenge, Scottish Economic Policy Network, Stirling-Glasgow, 2004
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp956

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Keywords: cohort size; demographic change; unemployment;

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References

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  1. Dahlberg, Susanne & Nahum, Ruth-Aïda, 2003. "Cohort Effects on Earnings Profiles: Evidence from Sweden," Arbetsrapport 2003:3, Institute for Futures Studies.
  2. Andrew B. Abel, 2001. "Will bequests attenuate the predicted meltdown in stock prices when baby boomers retire?," Working Papers 01-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  3. Schmidt, Christoph M., 1999. "Persistence and the German Unemployment Problem: Empirical Evidences on German Labor Market Flows," IZA Discussion Papers 31, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Daron Acemoglu, 2002. "Directed Technical Change," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 781-809.
  5. Richard B. Freeman, 1979. "The Effect of Demographic Factors on Age-Earnings Profiles," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 14(3), pages 289-318.
  6. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C1-33, March.
  7. Sanders Korenman & David Neumark, 2000. "Cohort Crowding and Youth Labor Markets (A Cross-National Analysis)," NBER Chapters, in: Youth Employment and Joblessness in Advanced Countries, pages 57-106 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Killingsworth, Mark R. & Heckman, James J., 1987. "Female labor supply: A survey," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & R. Layard (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 103-204 Elsevier.
  9. Rachel Connelly, 1986. "A Framework for Analyzing the Impact of Cohort Size on Education and Labor Earning," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 21(4), pages 543-562.
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Cited by:
  1. Elena Giarda, 2008. "The worsening of wage expectations in Italy: a study based on administrative data," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 64-87, May.
  2. Niebuhr, Annekatrin & Stiller, Silvia, 2005. "Demographischer Wandel und Arbeitsmärkte in Norddeutschland," Wirtschaftsdienst – Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik (1998 - 2007), ZBW – German National Library of Economics / Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 85(5), pages 326-332.
  3. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Sinning, Mathias, 2009. "The Impact of Demographic Change on Human Capital Accumulation," IZA Discussion Papers 4180, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Paula C. Albuquerque & João C. Lopes, 2010. "Economic impacts of ageing: an inter-industry approach," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(12), pages 970-986, October.

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