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Violence, Political Instability, and International Trade: Evidence from Kenya’s Cut Flower Sector

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  • Muhammad, Andrew
  • D'Souza, Anna
  • Amponsah, William A.

Abstract

Abstract: We assess whether and how violence and political instability affect trade between developed and developing countries considering the special case of EU imports of Kenyan roses after the 2007/08 post-election violence and political instability in Kenya. Using the Rotterdam model to estimate EU demand for roses from Kenya and other global competitors, we find evidence of a structural change in the import growth rate for Kenya, approximately equivalent to an 18.6% tariff. These results highlight the importance of non-tariff barriers to trade and contribute to the growing literature on the role of insecurity and instability in hindering international trade.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania with number 118374.

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Date of creation: Oct 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea11:118374

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Keywords: Kenya; Africa; EU; election violence; cut flowers; roses; imports; international trade; Demand and Price Analysis; International Development; International Relations/Trade; Political Economy; F14; F23; F59; O13; Q17;

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  1. Lee, Jack C., 1988. "Nested Rotterdam model : Applications to marketing research with special reference to telecommunications demand," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 193-206.
  2. Christopher Ksoll & Rocco Macchiavello & Ameet Morjaria, 2009. "Guns and Roses: The Impact of the Kenyan Post-Election Violence on Flower Exporting Firms," CSAE Working Paper Series 2009-06, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  3. Moschini, GianCarlo & Meilke, Karl D., 1989. "Modeling the Pattern of Structural Change in U.S. Meat Demand," Staff General Research Papers 11266, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  4. Ksoll, Christopher & Macchiavello, Rocco & Morjaria, Ameet, 2010. "The Effect of Ethnic Violence on an Export-Oriented Industry," CEPR Discussion Papers 8074, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Alberto Alesina & Sule Ozler & Nouriel Roubini & Phillip Swagel, 1992. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 4173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Clements, Kenneth W & Selvanathan, Antony & Selvanathan, Saroja, 1996. "Applied Demand Analysis: A Survey," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 72(216), pages 63-81, March.
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