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Quality risk aversion, conjectures, and new product diffusion

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  • Francesco Bogliacino

    ()

  • Giorgio Rampa

    ()

Abstract

In this paper, we provide a generalization of the standard models of the diffusion of a new product. Consumers are heterogeneous and risk averse, and the firm is uncertain about the demand curve: both learn from past observations. The attitude towards risk has important effects with regard to the diffusion pattern. In our model, downward-biased signals to consumers can prevent the success of the product, even if its objective quality is high: a “lock-in” result. We show, in addition, that the standard logistic pattern can be derived from the model. Finally, we discuss the steady states of the learning dynamics, with regard to the multiplicity and the local stability of equilibria, and to their welfare properties. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2012

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Evolutionary Economics.

Volume (Year): 22 (2012)
Issue (Month): 5 (November)
Pages: 1081-1115

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Handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:22:y:2012:i:5:p:1081-1115

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Related research

Keywords: Heterogeneity; Multiple equilibria; Lock-in; Product diffusion; Risk aversion; L15; D81; O33;

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References

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  1. Vijay Mahajan & Robert A. Peterson, 1978. "Innovation Diffusion in a Dynamic Potential Adopter Population," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(15), pages 1589-1597, November.
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  5. Francesco Bogliacino & Giorgio Rampa, 2010. "Monopolistic competition and new products: a conjectural equilibrium approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 55-76, June.
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  12. H. Peyton Young, 2009. "Innovation Diffusion in Heterogeneous Populations: Contagion, Social Influence, and Social Learning," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 1899-1924, December.
  13. Toshihiko Mukoyama, 2004. "Rosenberg's "Learning by Using" and Technology Diffusion," Working Papers 05003, Concordia University, Department of Economics.
  14. Joe A. Dodson, Jr. & Eitan Muller, 1978. "Models of New Product Diffusion Through Advertising and Word-of-Mouth," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(15), pages 1568-1578, November.
  15. Rothschild, Michael, 1974. "A two-armed bandit theory of market pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 185-202, October.
  16. Arthur, W Brian, 1989. "Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 116-31, March.
  17. Malerba, Franco, 2007. "Innovation and the dynamics and evolution of industries: Progress and challenges," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 675-699, August.
  18. Verbrugge, Randal, 2000. "Risk aversion, learning spillovers, and path-dependent economic growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 197-202, August.
  19. Tsur, Yacov & Sternberg, Menachem & Hochman, Eithan, 1990. "Dynamic Modelling of Innovation Process Adoption with Risk Aversion and Learning," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 336-55, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Giorgio Rampa & Francesco Bogliacino, 2012. "Expectational Bottlenecks and the Emerging of New Organizational Forms," Quaderni di Dipartimento 159, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
  2. Bogliacino, F & Rampa, G, 2009. "Monopolistic Competition and New Products: A Conjectural Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 15120, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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