Quality risk aversion, conjectures, and new product diffusion
AbstractIn this paper, we provide a generalization of the standard models of the diffusion of a new product. Consumers are heterogeneous and risk averse, and the firm is uncertain about the demand curve: both learn from past observations. The attitude towards risk has important effects with regard to the diffusion pattern. In our model, downward-biased signals to consumers can prevent the success of the product, even if its objective quality is high: a “lock-in” result. We show, in addition, that the standard logistic pattern can be derived from the model. Finally, we discuss the steady states of the learning dynamics, with regard to the multiplicity and the local stability of equilibria, and to their welfare properties. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2012
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Evolutionary Economics.
Volume (Year): 22 (2012)
Issue (Month): 5 (November)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00191/index.htm
Other versions of this item:
- Francesco Bogliacino & Giorgio Rampa, 2009. "Quality Risk Aversion, Conjectures, and New Product Diffusion," Quaderni di Dipartimento 092, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
- Francesco Bogliacino & Giorgio Rampa, 2009. "Quality Risk Aversion, Conjectures, and New Product Diffusion," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2009_27, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- L15 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Information and Product Quality
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- O33 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change; Research and Development; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Verbrugge, Randal, 2000. "Risk aversion, learning spillovers, and path-dependent economic growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 197-202, August.
- Jackson, Matthew O. & Yariv, Leeat, 2006.
"Diffusion of Behavior and Equilibrium Properties in Network Games,"
1264, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Matthew O. Jackson & Leeat Yariv, 2007. "Diffusion of Behavior and Equilibrium Properties in Network Games," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 92-98, May.
- AUMANN, Robert J. & DREZE, Jacques H., .
"Rational expectations in games,"
CORE Discussion Papers RP
-2011, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Banerjee, Abhijit & Fudenberg, Drew, 2004.
Games and Economic Behavior,
Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 1-22, January.
- Tsur, Yacov & Sternberg, Menachem & Hochman, Eithan, 1990. "Dynamic Modelling of Innovation Process Adoption with Risk Aversion and Learning," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 336-55, April.
- MUKOYAMA, Toshihiko, 2005.
"Rosenberg's "Learning by Using" and Technology Diffusion,"
Cahiers de recherche
21-2005, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Mukoyama, Toshihiko, 2006. "Rosenberg's "learning by using" and technology diffusion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 123-144, September.
- Toshihiko Mukoyama, 2004. "Rosenberg's "Learning by Using" and Technology Diffusion," Working Papers 05003, Concordia University, Department of Economics.
- H. Peyton Young, 2009. "Innovation Diffusion in Heterogeneous Populations: Contagion, Social Influence, and Social Learning," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 1899-1924, December.
- Geroski, Paul A, 1999.
"Models of Technology Diffusion,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2146, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
- Aoki, Masanao & Yoshikawa, Hiroshi, 2002. "Demand saturation-creation and economic growth," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 127-154, June.
- Rothschild, Michael, 1974. "A two-armed bandit theory of market pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 185-202, October.
- Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Valimaki, 1996.
"Market Diffusion with Two-Sided Learning,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1138, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Arthur, W Brian, 1989. "Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 116-31, March.
- Francesco Bogliacino & Giorgio Rampa, 2010.
"Monopolistic competition and new products: a conjectural equilibrium approach,"
Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination,
Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 55-76, June.
- Bogliacino, F & Rampa, G, 2009. "Monopolistic Competition and New Products: A Conjectural Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 15120, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- John H. Roberts & Glen L. Urban, 1988. "Modeling Multiattribute Utility, Risk, and Belief Dynamics for New Consumer Durable Brand Choice," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(2), pages 167-185, February.
- Malerba, Franco, 2007. "Innovation and the dynamics and evolution of industries: Progress and challenges," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 675-699, August.
- Rabik Ar Chatterjee & Jehoshua Eliashberg, 1990. "The Innovation Diffusion Process in a Heterogeneous Population: A Micromodeling Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(9), pages 1057-1079, September.
- Teck-Hua Ho & Sergei Savin & Christian Terwiesch, 2002. "Managing Demand and Sales Dynamics in New Product Diffusion Under Supply Constraint," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(2), pages 187-206, February.
- Vijay Mahajan & Robert A. Peterson, 1978. "Innovation Diffusion in a Dynamic Potential Adopter Population," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(15), pages 1589-1597, November.
- Jensen, Richard, 1982. "Adoption and diffusion of an innovation of uncertain profitability," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 182-193, June.
- Joe A. Dodson, Jr. & Eitan Muller, 1978. "Models of New Product Diffusion Through Advertising and Word-of-Mouth," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(15), pages 1568-1578, November.
- Giorgio Rampa & Francesco Bogliacino, 2012. "Expectational Bottlenecks and the Emerging of New Organizational Forms," Quaderni di Dipartimento 159, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
- Bogliacino, F & Rampa, G, 2009.
"Monopolistic Competition and New Products: A Conjectural Equilibrium Approach,"
15120, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Francesco Bogliacino & Giorgio Rampa, 2010. "Monopolistic competition and new products: a conjectural equilibrium approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 55-76, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.