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Market Diffusion with Two-Sided Learning

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Author Info
Dirk Bergemann () (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)
Juuso Valimaki (Northwestern Univ. and Univ. Southampton)

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Abstract

The diffusion of a new product of uncertain value is analyzed in a duopolistic market in continuous time. The two sides of the market, buyers and sellers, learn the true value of the new product over time as a result of experimentation. Buyers have heterogeneous preferences over the products and sellers compete in prices. The pricing policies and market shares of the sellers in the unique Markov perfect equilibrium are obtained explicitly. The dynamics of the equilibrium market shares display excessive sales of the new product relative to the social optimum in early stages and too low sales later on. The dynamic resolution of uncertainty implies ex post differentiation and hence both sellers value information positively. As information is generated only by experiments with the new product, this relaxes the price competition in the dynamic setting. Finally, the diffusion path of a successful product is shown to be S-shaped.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d11a/d1138.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1138.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: Nov 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1138

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Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
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Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Related research
Keywords: Dynamic duopoly; learning; market shares; diffusion;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Ramon Caminal & Xavier Vives, 1996. "Why Market Shares Matter: An Information-Based Theory," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 27(2), pages 221-239, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Harrington Jr. , Joseph E., 1995. "Experimentation and Learning in a Differentiated-Products Duopoly," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 275-288, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Gort, Michael & Klepper, Steven, 1982. "Time Paths in the Diffusion of Product Innovations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 630-53, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Aghion, Philippe & Espinosa, Maria Paz & Jullien, Bruno, 1993. "Dynamic Duopoly with Learning through Market Experimentation," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 517-39, July.
    Other versions:
  5. Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Valimaki, 1996. "Market Experimentation and Pricing," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1122, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  6. Shaked, Avner & Sutton, John, 1982. "Relaxing Price Competition through Product Differentiation," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(1), pages 3-13, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Judd, Kenneth L & Riordan, Michael H, 1994. "Price and Quality in a New Product Monopoly," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(4), pages 773-89, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Rob, Rafael, 1991. "Learning and Capacity Expansion under Demand Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(4), pages 655-75, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dinah Rosenberg & Eilon Solan & Nicolas Vieille, 2004. "Timing Games with Informational Externalities," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000000704, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
  2. Carole Haritchabalet, . "Strategic Experimentation In A Durable Goods Duopoly," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 433.99, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC). [Downloadable!]
  3. Dinah Rosenberg & Eilon Solan & Nicolas Vieille, 2004. "Social Learning in One-Arm Bandit Problems," Discussion Papers 1396, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Dirk Bergemann & Valimaki Juuso, 2001. "Entry and Vertical Differentiation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1302, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Valimaki, 1996. "Market Experimentation and Pricing," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1122, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  6. Juan José Ganuza, 2003. "Ignorance Promotes Competition: An Auction Model with Endogenous Private Valuations," Economics Working Papers 671, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
  7. J. Miguel Villas-Boas, 2000. "Competing with Experience Goods," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0771, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  8. Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Valimaki, 1999. "Experimentation in Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1214, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Godfrey Keller & Sven Rady, 1999. "Market Experimentation in a Dynamic Differentiated-Goods Duopoly," STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series 369, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Ching, Andrew & Ishihara, Masakazu, 2007. "The Effects of Detailing on Prescribing Decisions under Quality Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 4935, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Apr 2008. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jean-Paul Decamps & Thomas Mariotti & Stephane Villeneuve, 2003. "Investment Timing under Incomplete Information," STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series 444, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  12. Toker Doganoglu, 2000. "Dynamic Price Competition with Persistent Consumer Tastes," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1442, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  13. Kichool Park, 2001. "Essays in Strategic Experimentation," Levine's Working Paper Archive 625018000000000131, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
  14. Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Valimaki, 1999. "Entry and Innovation in Vertically Differentiated Markets," Discussion Papers 1260, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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