IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/restud/v88y2021i4p1720-1759..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Learning from House Prices: Amplification and Business Fluctuations
[House Price Booms and the Current Account]

Author

Listed:
  • Ryan Chahrour
  • Gaetano Gaballo

Abstract

We formalize the idea that house price changes may drive rational waves of optimism and pessimism in the economy. In our model, a house price increase caused by aggregate disturbances may be misinterpreted as a sign of higher local permanent income, leading households to demand more consumption and housing. Higher demand reinforces the initial price increase in an amplification loop that drives comovement in output, labour, residential investment, land prices, and house prices even in response to aggregate supply shocks. The qualitative implications of our otherwise frictionless model are consistent with observed business cycles and it can explain the economic impact of apparently autonomous changes in sentiment without resorting to non-fundamental shocks or nominal rigidity.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan Chahrour & Gaetano Gaballo, 2021. "Learning from House Prices: Amplification and Business Fluctuations [House Price Booms and the Current Account]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(4), pages 1720-1759.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:88:y:2021:i:4:p:1720-1759.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/restud/rdaa079
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephan Lauermann & Wolfram Merzyn & Gábor Virág, 2018. "Learning and Price Discovery in a Search Market," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(2), pages 1159-1192.
    2. Manuel Amador & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2010. "Learning from Prices: Public Communication and Welfare," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(5), pages 866-907.
    3. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing is the business cycle," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 149-233.
    4. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2016. "Understanding Booms and Busts in Housing Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1088-1147.
    5. Morris A. Davis, 2010. "housing and the business cycle," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Lichter, Andreas & Peichl, Andreas & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2015. "The own-wage elasticity of labor demand: A meta-regression analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 94-119.
    7. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    8. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2011. "Expectations, Learning, and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2844-2872, October.
    9. Gadi Barlevy & Pietro Veronesi, 2000. "Information Acquisition in Financial Markets," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 79-90.
    10. Andrea Gazzani, 2020. "News and noise bubbles in the housing market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 36, pages 46-72, April.
    11. Elías Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2014. "Dynamic Dispersed Information and the Credit Spread Puzzle," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 720, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Jess Benhabib & Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2015. "Sentiments and Aggregate Demand Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 549-585, March.
    13. Liu, Zheng & Miao, Jianjun & Zha, Tao, 2016. "Land prices and unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 86-105.
    14. Campbell, John Y. & Cocco, Joao F., 2007. "How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 591-621, April.
    15. Milgrom, Paul R, 1981. "Rational Expectations, Information Acquisition, and Competitive Bidding," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 921-943, June.
    16. Alp E. Atakan & Mehmet Ekmekci, 2014. "Auctions, Actions, and the Failure of Information Aggregation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 2014-2048, July.
    17. Atif Mian & Kamalesh Rao & Amir Sufi, 2013. "Household Balance Sheets, Consumption, and the Economic Slump," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(4), pages 1687-1726.
    18. Fehrle, Daniel, 2019. "Housing and the business cycle revisited," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 103-115.
    19. Hellwig, Martin F., 1980. "On the aggregation of information in competitive markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 477-498, June.
    20. Manzano, Carolina & Vives, Xavier, 2011. "Public and private learning from prices, strategic substitutability and complementarity, and equilibrium multiplicity," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 346-369.
    21. Kenza Benhima & Isabella Blengini, 2020. "Optimal Monetary Policy when Information is Market-Generated," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(628), pages 956-975.
    22. Greg Kaplan & Kurt Mitman & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(9), pages 3285-3345.
    23. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    24. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
    25. Ryan Chahrour & Kyle Jurado, 2018. "News or Noise? The Missing Link," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1702-1736, July.
    26. Marzena Rostek & Marek Weretka, 2012. "Price Inference in Small Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(2), pages 687-711, March.
    27. Attanasio, Orazio P & Weber, Guglielmo, 1994. "The UK Consumption Boom of the Late 1980s: Aggregate Implications of Microeconomic Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1269-1302, November.
    28. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
    29. Gaetano Gaballo, 2018. "Price Dispersion, Private Uncertainty, and Endogenous Nominal Rigidities," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(2), pages 1070-1110.
    30. Nguyen, Quoc Hung, 2018. "Revisiting housing and the business cycle," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 85-92.
    31. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    32. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1976. "Information and Competitive Price Systems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 246-253, May.
    33. Norman Miller & Liang Peng & Michael Sklarz, 2011. "House Prices and Economic Growth," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 522-541, May.
    34. Guido Lorenzoni, 2009. "A Theory of Demand Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2050-2084, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Straub, Ludwig & Ulbricht, Robert, 2015. "Endogenous Uncertainty and Credit Crunches," TSE Working Papers 15-604, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Dec 2017.
    2. Huo, Zhen & Pedroni, Marcelo, 2023. "Dynamic information aggregation: Learning from the past," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 107-124.
    3. Han, Zhao & Tan, Fei & Wu, Jieran, 2022. "Analytic policy function iteration," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chahrour, Ryan & Gaballo, Gaetano, 2017. "Learning from prices: amplication and business fluctuations," Working Paper Series 2053, European Central Bank.
    2. Angeletos, G.-M. & Lian, C., 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1065-1240, Elsevier.
    3. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics: Accommodating Frictions in Coordination," NBER Working Papers 22297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Guo, Zi-Yi, 2017. "Information heterogeneity, housing dynamics and the business cycle," EconStor Preprints 168561, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    5. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    6. Davis, Morris A. & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2015. "Housing, Finance, and the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 753-811, Elsevier.
    7. Guo, Zi-Yi, 2017. "Information heterogeneity, housing dynamics and the business cycle," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-17, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    9. Huang, Yuting & Li, Qiang & Liow, Kim Hiang & Zhou, Xiaoxia, 2020. "Is Housing the Business Cycle? A Multiresolution Analysis for OECD Countries," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    10. George‐Marios Angeletos & Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas, 2018. "Quantifying Confidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(5), pages 1689-1726, September.
    11. Pavan, Alessandro & Vives, Xavier, 2015. "Information, Coordination, and Market Frictions: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 407-426.
    12. Miura, Shogo, 2023. "Households’ assets, sentiment shocks and business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    13. Suh, Hyunduk, 2023. "Regionally heterogeneous housing cycles and housing market stabilization policies: Evidence from Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    14. Saleem Bahaj & Angus Foulis & Gabor Pinter, 2016. "The Residential Collateral Channel," Discussion Papers 1607, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Jun 2016.
    15. Gaetano Gaballo, 2018. "Price Dispersion, Private Uncertainty, and Endogenous Nominal Rigidities," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(2), pages 1070-1110.
    16. Rünstler, Gerhard & Balfoussia, Hiona & Burlon, Lorenzo & Buss, Ginters & Comunale, Mariarosaria & De Backer, Bruno & Dewachter, Hans & Guarda, Paolo & Haavio, Markus & Hindrayanto, Irma & Iskrev, Nik, 2018. "Real and financial cycles in EU countries - Stylised facts and modelling implications," Occasional Paper Series 205, European Central Bank.
    17. Nyakabawo, Wendy & Miller, Stephen M. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Das, Sonali & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Temporal causality between house prices and output in the US: A bootstrap rolling-window approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 55-73.
    18. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    19. Bielecki, Marcin & Stähler, Nikolai, 2022. "Labor Tax Reductions In Europe: The Role Of Property Taxation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 419-451, March.
    20. George-Marios Angeletos, 2018. "Frictional Coordination," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 563-603.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand shocks; House prices; Imperfect information; Animal spirits;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:88:y:2021:i:4:p:1720-1759.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/restud .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.