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Revisiting housing and the business cycle

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  • Nguyen, Quoc Hung

Abstract

This paper revisits the interactions between housing dynamics and the business cycle in a two-sector model developed and calibrated from the multi-sector neoclassical growth model originally envisioned by Davis and Heathcote in 2005. A two-sector model with housing sector specific capital and productivity shocks can successfully predict a correct positive correlation between housing prices and residential investment. The model can also replicate the fact observed in the United States that housing prices are more volatile than output.

Suggested Citation

  • Nguyen, Quoc Hung, 2018. "Revisiting housing and the business cycle," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 85-92.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:41:y:2018:i:c:p:85-92
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2018.05.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi, 1991. "The Allocation of Capital and Time over the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1188-1214, December.
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    4. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
    5. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2004. "Solving dynamic general equilibrium models using a second-order approximation to the policy function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 755-775, January.
    6. Baxter, Marianne, 1996. "Are Consumer Durables Important for Business Cycles?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 147-155, February.
    7. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    8. Chang, Yongsung, 2000. "Comovement, excess volatility, and home production," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 385-396, October.
    9. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    10. Fisher, Jonas D. M., 1997. "Relative prices, complementarities and comovement among components of aggregate expenditures," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 449-474, August.
    11. Horvath, Michael, 2000. "Sectoral shocks and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-106, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Fehrle & Christopher Heiberger, 2020. "The return on everything and the business cycle in production economies," Working Papers 193, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    2. Ryan Chahrour & Gaetano Gaballo, 2021. "Learning from House Prices: Amplification and Business Fluctuations [House Price Booms and the Current Account]," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 88(4), pages 1720-1759.
    3. Zhou, Qian & Shao, Qinglong & Zhang, Xiaoling & Chen, Jie, 2020. "Do housing prices promote total factor productivity? Evidence from spatial panel data models in explaining the mediating role of population density," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Comovement; Sector-specific capital;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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