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The Determinants of Vote Intentions in Portugal

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Author Info
Francisco JosÈ Veiga ()
Linda GonÁalves Veiga ()

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Abstract

This paper offers new insights on the interactions between economics and politics in Portugal. We use two unexplored data sets consisting of monthly polls on vote intentions for the main political parties in Portugal and responses to a consumer survey containing a battery of questions on economic evaluations. The analysis covers the interval from 1986 to 2001. We find that: (1) right-wing governments are penalized for higher inflation while the left-wing ones are not, (2) left-wing governments are more penalized for increases in the unemployment rate; (3) voters base their evaluations of incumbents' performances on perceptions of past and current economic conditions, rather than on expected future economic outcomes.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Public Choice.

Volume (Year): 118 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3_4 (03)
Pages: 341-364
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Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:118:y:2004:i:3_4:p:341-364

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100332

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  1. Francisco José Veiga & Linda Gonçalves Veiga, 2003. "Economia, Popularidade e Intenções de Voto em Portugal: uma Análise Longitudinal com Dados Agregados," NIPE Working Papers 3/2003, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  2. Linda Gonçalves Veiga & Francisco José Veiga, 2006. "Does Opportunism Pay Off?," NIPE Working Papers 5/2006, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Linda Gonçalves Veiga & Francisco José Veiga, 2006. "The impact of local and national economic conditions on legislative election results," NIPE Working Papers 6/2006, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  4. Benny Geys & Jan Vermeir, 2008. "Taxation and presidential approval: separate effects from tax burden and tax structure turbulence?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 301-317, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Khemani, Stuti & Wane, Waly, 2008. "Populist fiscal policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4762, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Francisco José Veiga & Linda Gonçalves Veiga, 2004. "Political Business Cycles at the Municipal Level," NIPE Working Papers 4/2004, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Toke S. Aidt & Francisco José Veiga & Linda Gonçalves Veiga, 2008. "Election Results And Opportunistic Policies: An Integrated Approach," GEE Papers 0007, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia e da Inovação, revised Apr 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Emanuele, Canegrati, 2007. "The Single-mindedness theory: empirical evidence from the U.K," MPRA Paper 2832, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  9. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Pedro C. Magalhães, 2008. "Growth, Centrism and Semi-Presidentialism: Forecasting the Portuguese General Elections," NIPE Working Papers 20/2008, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
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