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Partisan Waves: International Business Cycles and Electoral Choice

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  • Mark Andreas Kayser

Abstract

Pundits have often claimed, but scholars have never found, that partisan swings in the vote abroad predict electoral fortunes at home. Employing semiannual Eurobarometer data on vote intention in eight European countries, this article provides statistical evidence of international comovement in partisan vote intention and its provenance in international business cycles. Electoral support for “luxury parties,” those parties associated with higher spending and taxation, covaries across countries together with the business cycle. Both the domestic and international components of at least one economic aggregate—unemployment—prove a strong predictor of shifts in domestic vote intention. Globalization, by driving business cycle integration, is also synchronizing partisan cycles.

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  • Mark Andreas Kayser, 2009. "Partisan Waves: International Business Cycles and Electoral Choice," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 950-970, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:53:y:2009:i:4:p:950-970
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00410.x
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    3. Adam, Antonis & Ftergioti, Stamatia, 2019. "Neighbors and friends: How do European political parties respond to globalization?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 369-384.
    4. Ftergioti, Stamatia, 2017. "Neighbors and Friends: The Effect of Globalization on Party Positions," MPRA Paper 76662, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. HeeMin Kim & Hyeyoung Yoo & Jungho Roh, 2015. "A re-examination of the effects of the economy, government spending, and incumbent ideology on national policy mood," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 329-344, December.
    6. Amer Ait Sidhoum & Teresa Serra, 2016. "Volatility Spillovers in the Spanish Food Marketing Chain: The Case of Tomato," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 45-63, January.

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