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Economia, Popularidade e Intenções de Voto em Portugal: uma Análise Longitudinal com Dados Agregados

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Author Info
Francisco José Veiga () (Universidade do Minho - NIPE)
Linda Gonçalves Veiga () (Universidade do Minho - NIPE)

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Abstract

O presente artigo analisa o impacto da economia na popularidade dos governantes e nas intenções de voto dos portugueses. Os resultados das estimações realizadas revelam que: (1) os eleitores portugueses responsabilizam os governantes pela evolução da economia, em particular pelo desemprego; (2) os governos de direita são mais responsabilizados que os de esquerda pela evolução da inflação; (3) a avaliação do desempenho dos governantes é essencialmente retrospectiva. Os dados revelam ainda que a popularidade dos governantes/partidos depende da personalidade do seu líder, que existe erosão da popularidade ao longo de mandatos consecutivos no poder e que os governantes beneficiam de um estado de graça imediatamente após as eleições.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 3/2003.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:3/2003

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Postal: Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas, Escola de Economia e Gestão, Universidade do Minho, P-4710-057 Braga, Portugal
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Web page: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/versao_inglesa/index_uk.htm
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Related research
Keywords: economia; popularidade; intenções de voto; Portugal.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
P16 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Political Economy of Capitalism
E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Nannestad, Peter & Paldam, Martin, 1994. " The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(3-4), pages 213-45, June.
  2. Frey, Bruno S & Schneider, Friedrich, 1978. "An Empirical Study of Politico-Economic Interaction in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 174-83, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Swank, O H, 1993. " Popularity Functions Based on the Partisan Theory," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 75(4), pages 339-56, April.
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  4. Francisco José Veiga & Linda Gonçalves Veiga, 2000. "Popularity functions, partisan effects and support in Parliament," NIPE Working Papers 8/2001, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Francisco JosÈ Veiga & Linda GonÁalves Veiga, 2004. "The Determinants of Vote Intentions in Portugal," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 118(3_4), pages 341-364, 03. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-21.

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