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The determinants of vote intentions in Portugal

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Author Info
Francisco José Veiga () (Universidade do Minho - NIPE)
Linda Gonçalves Veiga () (Universidade do Minho - NIPE)

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Abstract

This paper offers additional insights on the interactions between economics and politics in Portugal. We use an unexplored data set consisting of monthly polls on vote intentions for the main political parties in Portugal, since 1986. Results indicate that: (1) socialist governments had less electoral support than social democratic governments; (2) social democratic governments enjoyed a honeymoon period with the electorate while socialist governments did not; (3) vote intentions for incumbent parties tend to decrease with time in office; (4) voters hold incumbents responsible for the evolution of the economy; (5) the socialists are more penalized for rises in unemployment than are the social democrats.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 6/2001.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:6/2001

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Postal: Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas, Escola de Economia e Gestão, Universidade do Minho, P-4710-057 Braga, Portugal
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Web page: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/versao_inglesa/index_uk.htm
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Related research
Keywords: voting functions; responsibility hypothesis; Portugal; vote intentions.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
H80 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - General
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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  1. Francisco José Veiga & Linda Gonçalves Veiga, 2003. "Economia, Popularidade e Intenções de Voto em Portugal: uma Análise Longitudinal com Dados Agregados," NIPE Working Papers 3/2003, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  2. Linda Gonçalves Veiga & Francisco José Veiga, 2006. "Does Opportunism Pay Off?," NIPE Working Papers 5/2006, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Linda Gonçalves Veiga & Francisco José Veiga, 2006. "The impact of local and national economic conditions on legislative election results," NIPE Working Papers 6/2006, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  4. Benny Geys & Jan Vermeir, 2008. "Taxation and presidential approval: separate effects from tax burden and tax structure turbulence?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 301-317, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Khemani, Stuti & Wane, Waly, 2008. "Populist fiscal policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4762, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Francisco José Veiga & Linda Gonçalves Veiga, 2004. "Political Business Cycles at the Municipal Level," NIPE Working Papers 4/2004, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Toke S. Aidt & Francisco José Veiga & Linda Gonçalves Veiga, 2008. "Election Results And Opportunistic Policies: An Integrated Approach," GEE Papers 0007, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia e da Inovação, revised Apr 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Emanuele, Canegrati, 2007. "The Single-mindedness theory: empirical evidence from the U.K," MPRA Paper 2832, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  9. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Pedro C. Magalhães, 2008. "Growth, Centrism and Semi-Presidentialism: Forecasting the Portuguese General Elections," NIPE Working Papers 20/2008, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
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