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The determinants of vote intentions in Portugal

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Abstract

This paper offers additional insights on the interactions between economics and politics in Portugal. We use an unexplored data set consisting of monthly polls on vote intentions for the main political parties in Portugal, since 1986. Results indicate that: (1) socialist governments had less electoral support than social democratic governments; (2) social democratic governments enjoyed a honeymoon period with the electorate while socialist governments did not; (3) vote intentions for incumbent parties tend to decrease with time in office; (4) voters hold incumbents responsible for the evolution of the economy; (5) the socialists are more penalized for rises in unemployment than are the social democrats.

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File URL: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/docs/2001/NIPE_WP_6_2001.PDF
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Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 6/2001.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:6/2001

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Postal: Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas, Escola de Economia e Gestão, Universidade do Minho, P-4710-057 Braga, Portugal
Phone: +351-253604510 ext 5532
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Web page: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/versao_inglesa/index_uk.htm
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Keywords: voting functions; responsibility hypothesis; Portugal; vote intentions.;

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