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Forecasting Spanish Elections

Author

Listed:
  • Pedro C. Magalhães

    (University of Lisbon, Social Sciences Institute)

  • Luís Francisco Aguiar

    (Universidade do Minho - NIPE)

  • Michael S. Lewis-Beck

    (University of Iowa)

Abstract

The behavior of the individual Spanish voter has come to be rather well-understood, thanks to a growing research literature. However, no models have appeared to explain, or to forecast, national election outcomes. The presence of this research gap contrasts sharply with the extensive election forecasting work done on other leading Western democracies. Here we fill this gap. The model, developed from core political economy theory, is parsimonious but statistically robust. Further, it promises considerable prediction accuracy of Spanish general election outcomes, six months before the contest actually occurs. After presenting the model, and carrying out extensive regression diagnostics, we offer an ex ante forecast of the 2012 general election.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro C. Magalhães & Luís Francisco Aguiar & Michael S. Lewis-Beck, 2011. "Forecasting Spanish Elections," NIPE Working Papers 17/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    • Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:17/2011
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nannestad, Peter & Paldam, Martin, 1994. "The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(3-4), pages 213-245, June.
    2. Duch,Raymond M. & Stevenson,Randolph T., 2008. "The Economic Vote," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521707404.
    3. Hibbs, Douglas A., 1977. "Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 1467-1487, December.
    4. Bellucci, Paolo, 2010. "Election cycles and electoral forecasting in Italy, 1994-2008," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 54-67, January.
    5. Ignacio Lago-Peñas & Santiago Lago-Peñas, 2005. "Does The Economy Matter? An Empirical Analysis Of The Causal Chain Connecting The Economy And The Vote In Galicia," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17, pages 215-243, July.
    6. Duch,Raymond M. & Stevenson,Randolph T., 2008. "The Economic Vote," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521881029.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Forecasting Spanish Elections: 2011 Spanish Pre-Election Report
      by Joshua Tucker in The Monkey Cage on 2011-09-21 23:51:53

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fronzetti Colladon, Andrea, 2020. "Forecasting election results by studying brand importance in online news," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 414-427.
    2. Quinlan, Stephen & Lewis-Beck, Michael S., 2021. "Forecasting government support in Irish general elections: Opinion polls and structural models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1654-1665.
    3. Aichholzer, Julian & Willmann, Johanna, 2014. "Forecasting Austrian national elections: The Grand Coalition model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 55-64.
    4. Munzert, Simon, 2017. "Forecasting elections at the constituency level: A correction–combination procedure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 467-481.
    5. Nadeau, Richard & Lewis-Beck, Michael S., 2020. "Election forecasts: Cracking the Danish case," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 892-898.
    6. Andreas Graefe & Kesten C Green & J Scott Armstrong, 2019. "Accuracy gains from conservative forecasting: Tests using variations of 19 econometric models to predict 154 elections in 10 countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, January.

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