Growth, Centrism and Semi-Presidentialism: Forecasting the Portuguese General Elections
AbstractElectoral behaviour in recently established democracies has been more frequently treated from the point of view of its unpredictability, volatility and personalistic elements than that of its "fundamentals". In this paper, we wish to contribute to redress this imbalance by advancing a forecasting model for general elections in a young democracy, Portugal. Building on the very familiar notion that the vote for the incumbent can be predicted on the basis of "economics" and "politics", we capture "economics" through a nonlinear specification of economic growth. Furthermore, we include two structural features of Portuguese politics, which have entailed a systematic electoral punishment for the centre-left Socialist Party as the incumbent and for all incumbents involved in political conflicts with the elected president in Portugal's semi-presidentialism.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 20/2008.
Date of creation: 2008
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-09-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2008-09-20 (Forecasting)
- NEP-POL-2008-09-20 (Positive Political Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Springer, vol. 118(3_4), pages 341-364, 03.
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