Forecasting partisan dynamics in Europe
AbstractObserving the distribution of the old European Union 15 (EU15) governments ordered by political families since 1978, a sharp Right-Left partisan cycle seems to appear. If we hypothesize that the EU15 is one geo-political unit called Euroland, such an empirical observation is accurate both for the aggregate number of Prime Ministers in office and for the aggregate vote share. In our Euroland, we consider each country of the EU15 as a region where citizens can choose between five political families when voting (the classic Right, the moderate and social-democratic Left, the Left of the Left, the far Right and rightist populists, and the ecologists). Our panel data from these countries includes results from 130 legislative elections, 1978-2008. After building a politico-economic vote function for each political bloc, we estimate a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) from which we forecast their respective electoral weights in Europe for the years to come. Accordingly, should we have more Keynesian, monetarist or free market oriented policies? Forecasting partisan dynamics should provide some answers.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.
Volume (Year): 26 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast
Economic voting Elections Europe Forecasting Political business cycle Partisan cycle;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jerome, Bruno & Vaillant, Nicolas G., 2005. "The French rejection of the European constitution: An empirical analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 1085-1092, December.
- Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65, pages 135.
- Salmon, Pierre, 1987.
"Decentralisation as an Incentive Scheme,"
Oxford Review of Economic Policy,
Oxford University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 24-43, Summer.
- SALMON, Pierre, 1987. "Decentralization as an incentive scheme," Institut des MathÃ©matiques Economiques â Document de travail de lâI.M.E. (1974-1993) 98, Institut des Mathématiques Economiques. LATEC, Laboratoire d'Analyse et des Techniques EConomiques, CNRS, Université de Bourgogne.
- Hibbs, Douglas Jr., 1992. "Partisan theory after fifteen years," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 361-373, October.
- Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-party System as a Repeated Game," Scholarly Articles 4552531, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Alberto Alesina, 1991. "Evaluating Rational Partisan Business Cycle Theory: A Response," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 63-71, 03.
- Mueller,Dennis C., 2003. "Public Choice III," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521894753, November.
- Nordhaus, William D, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 169-90, April.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.