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Forecasting partisan dynamics in Europe

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  • Jerôme, Bruno
  • Jerôme-Speziari, Véronique

Abstract

Observing the distribution of the old European Union 15 (EU15) governments ordered by political families since 1978, a sharp Right-Left partisan cycle seems to appear. If we hypothesize that the EU15 is one geo-political unit called Euroland, such an empirical observation is accurate both for the aggregate number of Prime Ministers in office and for the aggregate vote share. In our Euroland, we consider each country of the EU15 as a region where citizens can choose between five political families when voting (the classic Right, the moderate and social-democratic Left, the Left of the Left, the far Right and rightist populists, and the ecologists). Our panel data from these countries includes results from 130 legislative elections, 1978-2008. After building a politico-economic vote function for each political bloc, we estimate a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) from which we forecast their respective electoral weights in Europe for the years to come. Accordingly, should we have more Keynesian, monetarist or free market oriented policies? Forecasting partisan dynamics should provide some answers.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 26 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 98-115

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:26:y::i:1:p:98-115

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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Keywords: Economic voting Elections Europe Forecasting Political business cycle Partisan cycle;

References

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  1. Besley, Timothy & Case, Anne, 1995. "Incumbent Behavior: Vote-Seeking, Tax-Setting, and Yardstick Competition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 25-45, March.
  2. Mueller,Dennis C., 2003. "Public Choice III," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521894753, April.
  3. SALMON, Pierre, 1987. "Decentralization as an incentive scheme," Institut des Mathématiques Economiques – Document de travail de l’I.M.E. (1974-1993) 98, Institut des Mathématiques Economiques. LATEC, Laboratoire d'Analyse et des Techniques EConomiques, CNRS, Université de Bourgogne.
  4. Nordhaus, William D, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 169-90, April.
  5. Jerome, Bruno & Vaillant, Nicolas G., 2005. "The French rejection of the European constitution: An empirical analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 1085-1092, December.
  6. Hibbs, Douglas Jr., 1992. "Partisan theory after fifteen years," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 361-373, October.
  7. Sachs, Jeffrey & Alesina, Alberto, 1988. "Political Parties and the Business Cycle in the United States, 1948-1984," Scholarly Articles 4553026, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  8. Alberto Alesina, 1991. "Evaluating Rational Partisan Business Cycle Theory: A Response," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 63-71, 03.
  9. Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65, pages 135.
  10. Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-party System as a Repeated Game," Scholarly Articles 4552531, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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