Political Price Cycles in Regulated Industries: Theory and Evidence
AbstractThe early work of Stigler (1971) treats the regulatory process as the arbitration of conflicting economic and political interests rather than a pure welfare-maximizing effort. This paper builds on these ideas and models the regulatory process as a game where the industry-lobby, consumers-voters, and a regulator-politician interact to define the regulated price, in alternating electoral and non-electoral periods. The equilibrium that emerges consists of a fully rational political price cycle in a regulated industry. Using monthly data for regulated gasoline and electricity prices from Brazil, we find strong evidence pointing towards the existence of electoral price cycles in both markets. (JEL D72, L51, L71, L78, L94, L98, O14)
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa in its series Insper Working Papers with number wpe_55.
Date of creation: Oct 2006
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Rodrigo M. S. Moita & Claudio Paiva, 2013. "Political Price Cycles in Regulated Industries: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 94-121, February.
- Rodrigo Menon S. Moita & Claudio Paiva, 2006. "Political Price Cycles In Regulated Industries: Theory And Evidence," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 126, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
- Claudio Paiva & Rodrigo Moita, 2006. "Political Price Cycles in Regulated Industries: Theory and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 06/260, International Monetary Fund.
- D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation
- L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
- L78 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Government Policy
- L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
- L98 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Government Policy
- O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-12-01 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2006-12-01 (Development)
- NEP-INT-2006-12-01 (International Trade)
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