IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jomega/v59y2016ipap60-71.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Energy security in East Asia under climate mitigation scenarios in the 21st century

Author

Listed:
  • Matsumoto, Ken׳ichi
  • Andriosopoulos, Kostas

Abstract

Japan, China, and South Korea depend heavily on imports for most of their energy. This study aims to investigate how energy security in these three East Asian countries will change in the future under climate mitigation policy scenarios. The study will help researchers and policy makers to better understand the relationship between climate and energy issues that will arise in relevant policy discussions. The analysis was conducted using a computable general equilibrium model. A reference scenario and two policy scenarios based on the Representative Concentration Pathways adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are analyzed and compared between primary energy, fossil fuels imports, and diversification of energy sources.

Suggested Citation

  • Matsumoto, Ken׳ichi & Andriosopoulos, Kostas, 2016. "Energy security in East Asia under climate mitigation scenarios in the 21st century," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA), pages 60-71.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:59:y:2016:i:pa:p:60-71
    DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2014.11.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305048314001534
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.omega.2014.11.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Falk, Jim & Settle, Domenica, 2011. "Australia: Approaching an energy crossroads," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6804-6813.
    2. von Hippel, David & Hayes, Peter & Kang, Jungmin & Katsuta, Tadahiro, 2011. "Future regional nuclear fuel cycle cooperation in East Asia: Energy security costs and benefits," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6867-6881.
    3. von Hippel, David & Gulidov, Ruslan & Kalashnikov, Victor & Hayes, Peter, 2011. "Northeast Asia regional energy infrastructure proposals," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6855-6866.
    4. Löschel, Andreas & Moslener, Ulf & Rübbelke, Dirk T.G., 2010. "Indicators of energy security in industrialised countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1665-1671, April.
    5. Toshihiko Masui & Kenichi Matsumoto & Yasuaki Hijioka & Tsuguki Kinoshita & Toru Nozawa & Sawako Ishiwatari & Etsushi Kato & P. Shukla & Yoshiki Yamagata & Mikiko Kainuma, 2011. "An emission pathway for stabilization at 6 Wm −2 radiative forcing," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 59-76, November.
    6. Okagawa, Azusa & Masui, Toshihiko & Akashi, Osamu & Hijioka, Yasuaki & Matsumoto, Kenichi & Kainuma, Mikiko, 2012. "Assessment of GHG emission reduction pathways in a society without carbon capture and nuclear technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 391-398.
    7. Kruyt, Bert & van Vuuren, D.P. & de Vries, H.J.M. & Groenenberg, H., 2009. "Indicators for energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2166-2181, June.
    8. Relvas, Susana & Boschetto Magatão, Suelen N. & Barbosa-Póvoa, Ana Paula F.D. & Neves, Flávio, 2013. "Integrated scheduling and inventory management of an oil products distribution system," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 955-968.
    9. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    10. Henry Chen, Y.-H. & Reilly, John M. & Paltsev, Sergey, 2011. "The prospects for coal-to-liquid conversion: A general equilibrium analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4713-4725, September.
    11. P. R. Shukla & Subash Dhar & Diptiranjan Mahapatra, 2008. "Low-carbon society scenarios for India," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(sup1), pages 156-176, December.
    12. Wang, Yanjia & Gu, Alun & Zhang, Aling, 2011. "Recent development of energy supply and demand in China, and energy sector prospects through 2030," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6745-6759.
    13. Valentine, Scott Victor, 2011. "Japanese wind energy development policy: Grand plan or group think?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6842-6854.
    14. Detlef Vuuren & Elmar Kriegler & Brian O’Neill & Kristie Ebi & Keywan Riahi & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Ritu Mathur & Harald Winkler, 2014. "A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 373-386, February.
    15. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    16. von Hippel, David & Savage, Timothy & Hayes, Peter, 2011. "Overview of the Northeast Asia energy situation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6703-6711.
    17. von Hippel, David & Hayes, Peter, 2011. "DPRK energy sector development priorities: Options and preferences," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6781-6789.
    18. Vivoda, Vlado, 2010. "Evaluating energy security in the Asia-Pacific region: A novel methodological approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5258-5263, September.
    19. Timilsina, Govinda R. & Csordás, Stefan & Mevel, Simon, 2011. "When does a carbon tax on fossil fuels stimulate biofuels?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(12), pages 2400-2415.
    20. Saveyn, Bert & Van Regemorter, Denise & Ciscar, Juan Carlos, 2011. "Economic analysis of the climate pledges of the Copenhagen Accord for the EU and other major countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(S1), pages 34-40.
    21. Li, Der-Chiang & Chang, Che-Jung & Chen, Chien-Chih & Chen, Wen-Chih, 2012. "Forecasting short-term electricity consumption using the adaptive grey-based approach—An Asian case," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 767-773.
    22. Allison Thomson & Katherine Calvin & Steven Smith & G. Kyle & April Volke & Pralit Patel & Sabrina Delgado-Arias & Ben Bond-Lamberty & Marshall Wise & Leon Clarke & James Edmonds, 2011. "RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 77-94, November.
    23. Kumbaroglu, Gurkan Selcuk, 2003. "Environmental taxation and economic effects: a computable general equilibrium analysis for Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 795-810, November.
    24. Khanh Toan, Pham & Minh Bao, Nguyen & Ha Dieu, Nguyen, 2011. "Energy supply, demand, and policy in Viet Nam, with future projections," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6814-6826.
    25. Katsuta, Tadahiro & Suzuki, Tatsujiro, 2011. "Japan's spent fuel and plutonium management challenge," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6827-6841.
    26. von Hippel, David & Suzuki, Tatsujiro & Williams, James H. & Savage, Timothy & Hayes, Peter, 2011. "Energy security and sustainability in Northeast Asia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6719-6730.
    27. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
    28. Papadopoulos, Agis & Karagiannidis, Avraam, 2008. "Application of the multi-criteria analysis method Electre III for the optimisation of decentralised energy systems," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 766-776, October.
    29. Keywan Riahi & Shilpa Rao & Volker Krey & Cheolhung Cho & Vadim Chirkov & Guenther Fischer & Georg Kindermann & Nebojsa Nakicenovic & Peter Rafaj, 2011. "RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 33-57, November.
    30. Von Hippel, David & Savage, Timothy & Hayes, Peter, 2011. "Introduction to the Asian Energy Security project: Project organization and methodologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6712-6718.
    31. Zhao, Weigang & Wang, Jianzhou & Lu, Haiyan, 2014. "Combining forecasts of electricity consumption in China with time-varying weights updated by a high-order Markov chain model," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 80-91.
    32. Takase, Kae & Suzuki, Tatsujiro, 2011. "The Japanese energy sector: Current situation, and future paths," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6731-6744.
    33. Kim, Hoseok & Shin, Eui-soon & Chung, Woo-jin, 2011. "Energy demand and supply, energy policies, and energy security in the Republic of Korea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6882-6897.
    34. Huang, Yophy & Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey & Peng, Chieh-Yu, 2011. "The long-term forecast of Taiwan’s energy supply and demand: LEAP model application," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6790-6803.
    35. Kalashnikov, Victor & Gulidov, Ruslan & Ognev, Alexander, 2011. "Energy sector of the Russian Far East: Current status and scenarios for the future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6760-6780.
    36. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
    37. Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Nigel Arnell & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Elmar Kriegler & Ritu Mathur & Brian O’Neill & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren & Timm Zwickel, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 363-372, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xue, Liming & Li, Huaqing & Shen, Wenlong & Zhao, Xiangyi & Liu, Zhe & Zheng, Zhixue & Hu, Jie & Meng, Shuo, 2023. "Applying GeoDetector to disentangle the contributions of the 4-As evaluation indicators to the spatial differentiation of coal resource security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    2. Franki, Vladimir & Višković, Alfredo, 2021. "Multi-criteria decision support: A case study of Southeast Europe power systems," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    3. Milijana Novovic Buric & Andjela Jaksic Stojanovic & Ana Lalevic Filipovic & Ljiljana Kascelan, 2022. "Research of Attitudes toward Implementation of Green Accounting in Tourism Industry in Montenegro-Practices, and Challenges," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-26, February.
    4. Vandyck, Toon & Saveyn, Bert & Keramidas, Kimon & Kitous, Alban & Vrontisi, Zoi, 2016. "A global stocktake of the Paris pledges: implications for energy systems and economy," Conference papers 332704, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Fahad Bin Abdullah & Rizwan Iqbal & Falak Shad Memon & Sadique Ahmad & Mohammed A. El-Affendi, 2023. "Advancing Sustainability in the Power Distribution Industry: An Integrated Framework Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-28, May.
    6. Bompard, E. & Carpignano, A. & Erriquez, M. & Grosso, D. & Pession, M. & Profumo, F., 2017. "National energy security assessment in a geopolitical perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 144-154.
    7. Xu, Changyan & Wang, Chuanxu & Huang, Rongbing, 2020. "Impacts of horizontal integration on social welfare under the interaction of carbon tax and green subsidies," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    8. Sugra Ingilab Humbatova & Natig Qadim-Oglu Hajiyev, 2019. "Oil Factor in Economic Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-40, April.
    9. Liu, Lirong & Huang, Guohe & Baetz, Brian & Zhang, Kaiqiang, 2018. "Environmentally-extended input-output simulation for analyzing production-based and consumption-based industrial greenhouse gas mitigation policies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 69-78.
    10. Pin Li & Jinsuo Zhang, 2019. "Is China’s Energy Supply Sustainable? New Research Model Based on the Exponential Smoothing and GM(1,1) Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-30, January.
    11. Hughes, Larry & de Jong, Moniek & Wang, Xiao Qin, 2016. "A generic method for analyzing the risks to energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 895-908.
    12. Alfredo Višković & Vladimir Franki & Angela Bašić-Šiško, 2022. "City-Level Transition to Low-Carbon Economy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-24, February.
    13. Truong, Chi & Trück, Stefan & Mathew, Supriya, 2018. "Managing risks from climate impacted hazards – The value of investment flexibility under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(1), pages 132-145.
    14. Matsumoto, Ken’ichi & Shiraki, Hiroto, 2018. "Energy security performance in Japan under different socioeconomic and energy conditions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 391-401.
    15. Satoshi Nakano & Kazuhiko Nishimura, 2017. "Structural propagation in a production network with restoring substitution elasticities," Papers 1701.02216, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2018.
    16. Jaehyung An & Alexey Mikhaylov & Sang-Uk Jung, 2020. "The Strategy of South Korea in the Global Oil Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-8, May.
    17. Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Yoshino, Naoyuki & Sarker, Tapan, 2019. "Russian Federation–East Asia Liquefied Natural Gas Trade Patterns and Regional Energy Security," ADBI Working Papers 965, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    18. Mohammad Fazle Rabbi & József Popp & Domicián Máté & Sándor Kovács, 2022. "Energy Security and Energy Transition to Achieve Carbon Neutrality," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-18, October.
    19. Zhang, Long & Bai, Wuliyasu & Xiao, Huijuan & Ren, Jingzheng, 2021. "Measuring and improving regional energy security: A methodological framework based on both quantitative and qualitative analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    20. Kumar, Sourabh, 2023. "Evaluation and analysis of India's energy security: A policy perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PB).
    21. Muhammad Mushafiq & Muzammil Muhammad Khan Arisar & Hanan Tariq & Stanislaw Czapp, 2023. "Energy Efficiency and Economic Policy: Comprehensive Theoretical, Empirical, and Policy Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-22, March.
    22. Ken’ichi Matsumoto & Kaoru Tachiiri & Michio Kawamiya, 2018. "Evaluating multiple emission pathways for fixed cumulative carbon dioxide emissions from global-scale socioeconomic perspectives," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 1-26, January.
    23. Warner, Kevin J. & Jones, Glenn A., 2017. "A population-induced renewable energy timeline in nine world regions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 65-76.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fujimori, S. & Kainuma, M. & Masui, T. & Hasegawa, T. & Dai, H., 2014. "The effectiveness of energy service demand reduction: A scenario analysis of global climate change mitigation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 379-391.
    2. Speers, Ann E. & Besedin, Elena Y. & Palardy, James E. & Moore, Chris, 2016. "Impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on coral reef fisheries: An integrated ecological–economic model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 33-43.
    3. Magalhães Filho, L.N.L. & Roebeling, P.C. & Costa, L.F.C. & de Lima, L.T., 2022. "Ecosystem services values at risk in the Atlantic coastal zone due to sea-level rise and socioeconomic development," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    4. Miftakhova, Alena & Judd, Kenneth L. & Lontzek, Thomas S. & Schmedders, Karl, 2020. "Statistical approximation of high-dimensional climate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 67-80.
    5. Angel Manuel Benitez Rodriguez & Ian Michael Trotter, 2019. "Climate change scenarios for Paraguayan power demand 2017–2050," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 425-445, October.
    6. Hans van Meijl & Petr Havlik & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Elke Stehfest & Peter Witzke & Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Benjamin Bodirsky & Michiel van Dijk & Jonathan Doelman & Thomas Fellmann & Florian Humpe, 2017. "Challenges of Global Agriculture in a Climate Change Context by 2050 (AgCLIM50)," JRC Research Reports JRC106835, Joint Research Centre.
    7. Hem H Dholakia & Vimal Mishra & Amit Garg, 2015. "Predicted Increases in Heat related Mortality under Climate Change in Urban India," Working Papers id:7115, eSocialSciences.
    8. O'Neill, Brian, 2016. "The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their extension and use in impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies," Conference papers 332808, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Vanessa J. Schweizer, 2020. "Reflections on cross-impact balances, a systematic method constructing global socio-technical scenarios for climate change research," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 1705-1722, October.
    10. Silva Herran, Diego & Tachiiri, Kaoru & Matsumoto, Ken'ichi, 2019. "Global energy system transformations in mitigation scenarios considering climate uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C), pages 119-131.
    11. Kleinwechter, Ulrich & Levesque, Antoine & Havlik, Petr & Forsell, Nicklas & Zhang, Yuquan & Fricko, Oliver & Obersteiner, Michael, 2015. "Global food efficiency of climate change mitigation in agriculture," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212010, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Kun Peng & Kuishuang Feng & Bin Chen & Yuli Shan & Ning Zhang & Peng Wang & Kai Fang & Yanchao Bai & Xiaowei Zou & Wendong Wei & Xinyi Geng & Yiyi Zhang & Jiashuo Li, 2023. "The global power sector’s low-carbon transition may enhance sustainable development goal achievement," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    13. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    14. Roberto Roson & Richard Damania, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity: an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," IEFE Working Papers 84, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    15. Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha & Limmeechokchai, Bundit, 2013. "Energy security and co-benefits of energy efficiency improvement in three Asian countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 491-503.
    16. Milan Ščasný & Emanuele Massetti & Jan Melichar & Samuel Carrara, 2015. "Quantifying the Ancillary Benefits of the Representative Concentration Pathways on Air Quality in Europe," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(2), pages 383-415, October.
    17. Enrica De Cian & Ian Sue Wing, 2016. "Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate," Working Papers 2016.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    18. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2021. "Impact of climate change on global agricultural markets under different shared socioeconomic pathways," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(6), pages 963-984, November.
    19. Juliette N. Rooney-Varga & Florian Kapmeier & John D. Sterman & Andrew P. Jones & Michele Putko & Kenneth Rath, 2020. "The Climate Action Simulation," Simulation & Gaming, , vol. 51(2), pages 114-140, April.
    20. Pretis, Felix, 2021. "Exogeneity in climate econometrics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:59:y:2016:i:pa:p:60-71. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/375/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.