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A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions

Author

Listed:
  • Kristie Ebi
  • Stephane Hallegatte
  • Tom Kram
  • Nigel Arnell
  • Timothy Carter
  • Jae Edmonds
  • Elmar Kriegler
  • Ritu Mathur
  • Brian O’Neill
  • Keywan Riahi
  • Harald Winkler
  • Detlef Vuuren
  • Timm Zwickel

Abstract

The scientific community is developing new global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes that could pose risks to human and natural systems; how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; and the relationship of future climate change adaptation and mitigation policy responses with sustainable development. This paper provides the background to and process of developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, as described in the three subsequent papers in this Special Issue (Van Vuuren et al., 2013 ; O’Neill et al., 2013 ; Kriegler et al., Submitted for publication in this special issue ). The paper also discusses research needs to further develop, apply, and revise this framework in an iterative and open-ended process. A key goal of the framework design and its future development is to facilitate the collaboration of climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines to develop policy- and decision-relevant scenarios and explore the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with additional climate change. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Nigel Arnell & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Elmar Kriegler & Ritu Mathur & Brian O’Neill & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren & Timm Zwickel, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 363-372, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:122:y:2014:i:3:p:363-372
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0912-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. B.C. O'Neill & T Carter & Kl Ebi & J. Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & E. Kemp-Benedict & E. Kriegler & L. Mearns & R. Moss & K. Riahi & B. van Ruijven & D. van Vuuren, 2012. "Meeting Report of the Workshop on The Nature and Use of New Socioeconomic Pathways for Climate Change Research," CIRED Working Papers hal-00801931, HAL.
    2. Detlef Vuuren & Elmar Kriegler & Brian O’Neill & Kristie Ebi & Keywan Riahi & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Ritu Mathur & Harald Winkler, 2014. "A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 373-386, February.
    3. Julie Rozenberg & Céline Guivarch & Robert Lempert & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2014. "Building SSPs for climate policy analysis: a scenario elicitation methodology to map the space of possible future challenges to mitigation and adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 509-522, February.
    4. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    5. Yasuhiro Ishizaki & Hideo Shiogama & Seita Emori & Tokuta Yokohata & Toru Nozawa & Tomoo Ogura & Manabu Abe & Masakazu Yoshimori & Kiyoshi Takahashi, 2012. "Temperature scaling pattern dependence on representative concentration pathway emission scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(2), pages 535-546, May.
    6. Detlef Vuuren & James Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & John Weyant, 2011. "A special issue on the RCPs," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 1-4, November.
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