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The long-term forecast of Taiwan’s energy supply and demand: LEAP model application

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  • Huang, Yophy
  • Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey
  • Peng, Chieh-Yu
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    Abstract

    The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in Taiwan due to Taiwan’s lack of natural resources, dependence on energy imports, and the nation’s pursuit of sustainable development. In this article, we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in Taiwan, and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies, as background to a description of the preparation and application of a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model of Taiwan’s energy sector. The Taiwan LEAP model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution. Results of scenarios featuring “business-as-usual” policies, aggressive energy-efficiency improvement policies, and on-schedule retirement of Taiwan’s three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared, along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions. A concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in Taiwan.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421510007743
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 39 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 11 ()
    Pages: 6790-6803

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:11:p:6790-6803

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

    Related research

    Keywords: Energy forecast; Energy policy; Carbon emission reduction;

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    Cited by:
    1. Mototsugu Fukushige & Hiroshige Yamawaki, 2013. "The relationship between an electricity supply ceiling and economic growth: An application of disequilibrium modeling to Taiwan," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 13-11, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
    2. Ahanchian, Mohammad & Biona, Jose Bienvenido Manuel, 2014. "Energy demand, emissions forecasts and mitigation strategies modeled over a medium-range horizon: The case of the land transportation sector in Metro Manila," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 615-629.
    3. McPherson, Madeleine & Karney, Bryan, 2014. "Long-term scenario alternatives and their implications: LEAP model application of Panama׳s electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 146-157.

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