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Impact of rainfall pattern on cereal market and food security in Sudan: Stochastic approach and CGE model

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  • Sassi, Maria
  • Cardaci, Alberto

Abstract

The paper aims at analysing the impact of the likely change in rainfall on food availability and access to food in Sudan. The empirical investigation is based on an integrated approach consisting of a stochastic method and CGE model. The former, related to the Monte Carlo analysis, provides the likely changes in rainfall patterns and their probability of occurrence based on historical data. These results are at the basis of the scenarios simulated in a standard CGE model augmented with a stochastic component. Achievements underline the negative impact on the two dimensions of food security taken into consideration, mainly due to a reduction in cereal supply, a marked cereal inflation pressure and income contraction; the greater negative effect on the poorest households; and a deterioration of the economic performance of the country. In this context, the paper stresses a strong interconnection among climate change and variability, poverty and food insecurity and thus the need for an integrated policy-making approach.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Food Policy.

Volume (Year): 43 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 321-331

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:43:y:2013:i:c:p:321-331

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/foodpol

Related research

Keywords: Rainfall patterns; Food security; Stochastic approach; CGE; Sudan;

References

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  1. Hassan, R. M. & Hallam, Arne, 1996. "Macro-Economic Linkages to Agriculture: A General Equilibrium Model for Sudan," Staff General Research Papers 5157, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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  3. Thurlow, James & van Seventer, Dirk Ernst, 2002. "A standard computable general equilibrium model for South Africa," TMD discussion papers 100, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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  5. Sassi, Maria, 2012. "Impact Of Climate Change And International Prices Uncertainty On The Sudanese Sorghum Market: A Stochastic Approach," Congress Papers 124111, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
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  8. Teklu, Tesfaye & von Braun, Joachim & Zaki, Elsayed & Ali, Ahmed, 1991. "Drought and famine relationships in Sudan: policy implications," Research reports 88, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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  14. S. Niggol Seo & Robert Mendelsohn, 2008. "Measuring impacts and adaptations to climate change: a structural Ricardian model of African livestock management-super-1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 38(2), pages 151-165, 03.
  15. Pradeep Kurukulasuriya & Robert Mendelsohn & Rashid Hassan & James Benhin & Temesgen Deressa & Mbaye Diop & Helmy Mohamed Eid & K. Yerfi Fosu & Glwadys Gbetibouo & Suman Jain & Ali Mahamadou & Renneth, 2006. "Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 20(3), pages 367-388.
  16. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-71, September.
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