Impact Of Climate Change On Cereal Market And Food Security In Sudan: Stochastic Approach And Cge Model
AbstractThe paper aims at analysing the impact of the likely change in rainfall on food availability and access to food in Sudan. The empirical investigation is based on an integrated approach consisting on a stochastic method and CGE model. The former provides the likely changes in sorghum, millet and wheat productivity and their probability of occurrence according to rainfall predictions based on historical data. These results are at the basis of the shocks simulated in a standard CGE model augmented with a stochastic component. Achievements underline the negative impact on the two dimensions of food security taken into consideration, mainly due to a reduction in cereal supply, a marked cereal inflation pressure and income contraction; the grater negative effect on the poorest households; and a deterioration of the economic performance of the country. In this context, the paper stresses a strong interconnection among climate change, poverty and food insecurity and thus the need for an integrated policy-making approach.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Agricultural Economics Society in its series 86th Annual Conference, April 16-18, 2012, Warwick University, Coventry, UK with number 134779.
Date of creation: Apr 2012
Date of revision:
Climate change; Food Security; Stochastic approach; CGE; Sudan; Food Security and Poverty; C68; Q18; Q54;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
- Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2012-10-13 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2012-10-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENV-2012-10-13 (Environmental Economics)
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