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Adapting to Climate Change An Integrated Biophysical and Economic Assessment for Mozambique

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Author Info

  • Arndt, Channing
  • Strzepeck, Kenneth
  • Tarp, Finn
  • Thurlow, James
  • Fant, Charles
  • Wright, Len

Abstract

Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modelling framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US$2.3 to US$7.4 billion during 2003– 50. Our analysis identifies improved road design and agricultural sector investments as key ‘no-regret’ adaptation measures, alongside intensified efforts to develop a more flexible and resilient society. Our findings also support the need for cooperative river basin management and the regional coordination of adaptation strategies.

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File URL: http://www.wider.unu.edu/stc/repec/pdfs/wp2010/wp2010-101.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) in its series Working Paper Series with number wp2010-101.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2010-101

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Keywords: entrepreneurship; gender; women entrepreneurs; Africa;

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Cited by:
  1. Channing Arndt & William Farmer & Kenneth Strzepek & James Thurlow, 2012. "Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Tanzania," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 378-393, 08.
  2. Sherman Robinson & Dirk Willenbockel & Kenneth Strzepek, 2012. "A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ethiopia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 489-502, 08.
  3. Gebreegziabher, Zenebe & Stage, Jesper & Mekonnen, Alemu & Alemu, Atlaw, 2011. "Climate Change and the Ethiopian Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Discussion Papers dp-11-09-efd, Resources For the Future.
  4. James Thurlow & Paul Dorosh & Winston Yu, 2012. "A Stochastic Simulation Approach to Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Bangladesh," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 412-428, 08.
  5. Arndt, Channing & Tarp, Finn & Thurlow, James, 2012. "The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  6. Arndt, Channing & Strzepek, Kenneth & Thurlow, James, 2011. "Climate Change and Infrastructure Investment in Developing Countries: The Case of Mozambique," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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