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Impact of climate change on wheat market and food security in Sudan: stochastic approach and CGE model and CGE Model

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  • Sassi, Maria
  • Cardaci, Alberto

Abstract

The paper aims at analysing the impact of the likely change in rainfall on food availability and access to food in Sudan. The empirical investigation is based on an integrated approach consisting of a stochastic method and CGE model. The former provides the likely changes in sorghum, millet and wheat productivity and their probability of occurrence according to rainfall predictions based on historical data. These results are at the basis of the shocks simulated in a standard CGE model augmented with a stochastic component. Achievements underline the negative impact on the two dimensions of food security taken into consideration, mainly due to a reduction in cereal supply, a marked cereal inflation pressure and income contraction; the grater negative effect on the poorest households; and a deterioration of the economic performance of the country. In this context, the paper stresses a strong interconnection among climate change, poverty and food insecurity and thus the need for an integrated policy-making approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Sassi, Maria & Cardaci, Alberto, 2012. "Impact of climate change on wheat market and food security in Sudan: stochastic approach and CGE model and CGE Model," 2012 First Congress, June 4-5, 2012, Trento, Italy 124110, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aieacp:124110
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.124110
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rashid M. Hassan & Arne Hallam, 1996. "Macro‐Economic Linkages To Agriculture: A General Equilibrium Model For Sudan," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1‐4), pages 66-88, January.
    2. Khalid H.A. Siddig, 2012. "The Controversy of Exchange Rate Devaluation in Sudan: An Economy-wide General Equilibrium Assessment," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 24(3), pages 245-254, September.
    3. Thurlow, James & van Seventer, Dirk Ernst, 2002. "A standard computable general equilibrium model for South Africa," TMD discussion papers 100, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Zhai, Fan & Lin, Tun & Byambadorj, Enerelt, 2009. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in the People’s Republic of China," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 26(1), pages 206-225.
    5. Dominique VAN DER MENSBRUGGHE, 2010. "Climate Change Policy Options for Asian Economies: Findings from an Integrated Assessment Model," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 5(1), pages 63-83, June.
    6. Collier, Paul & Joshi, Vijay, 1989. "Exchange Rate Policy in Developing Countries," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 5(3), pages 94-113, Autumn.
    7. Löfgren, Hans & Chulu, Osten & Sichinga, Osky & Simtowe, Franklin & Tchale, Hardwick & Teska, Ralph & Wobst, Peter, 2001. "External shocks and domestic poverty alleviation: Simulations with a CGE model of Malawi," TMD discussion papers 71, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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