Poverty and inequality effects of a high growth scenario in South Africa: A dynamic microsimulation CGE analysis
AbstractThe debate about the consequences of economic growth on poverty and welfare was recently rekindled in South Africa by announcements that the government would be targeting a sustainable growth rate of 6 percent per annum under the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative for South Africa (ASGISA). This paper uses a sequential dynamic computable general equilibrium model linked to a nationally representative household survey to assess the poverty and economic consequences of a higher economic growth scenario. The main findings are that higher economic growth induces reductions in poverty both in the short and long run. It enhances capital accumulation, particularly in the agriculture and textiles sectors. An interesting observation is that the Mining industry benefits the least from a high economic growth scenario. However, this is not related to domestic savings/investment. Mining is strongly dependent on foreign investments and the industry return to capital is less profitable to domestic institutions, particularly households and this is what explains the lower benefits to the sector. African and Coloured households reap most of the benefits, with greater gains among urban unskilled dwellers. These findings suggest that lifting of growth constraints rather than macroeconomic stimulation would induce higher growth with the resulting beneficial effects. Economic growth of the levels simulated does not appear to be inconsistent with macroeconomic balance, as reflected in price stability, balance of payments and sectoral effects.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 04/2007.
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Sequential dynamic CGE; microsimulation; ASGISA; poverty; welfare; growth; South Africa;
Other versions of this item:
- Ramos Mabugu & Margaret Chitiga, 2007. "Poverty and Inequality Effects of a High Growth Scenario in South Africa: A Dynamic Microsimulation CGE Analysis," Working Papers 200716, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
- I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
- O15 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
- O55 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AFR-2007-02-24 (Africa)
- NEP-ALL-2007-02-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2007-02-24 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-DEV-2007-02-24 (Development)
- NEP-MAC-2007-02-24 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Margaret Chitiga & John Cockburn & Bernard Decaluwé & Ismaël Fofana & Ramos Mabugu, 2010. "Case Study: A gender-focused macro-micro analysis of the poverty impacts of trade liberalization in South Africa," International Journal of Microsimulation, Interational Microsimulation Association, vol. 3(1), pages 104-108.
- Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-66, May.
- Jean, Sébastien & Guérin, Jean-Louis & Decreux, Yvan & Bchir, Mohamed Hedi, 2002.
"MIRAGE, a Computable General Equilibrium Model for Trade Policy Analysis,"
Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine
123456789/6497, Paris Dauphine University.
- Mohamed Hedi Bchir & Yvan Decreux & Jean-Louis Guérin & Sébastien Jean, 2002. "MIRAGE, a Computable General Equilibrium Model for Trade Policy Analysis," Working Papers 2002-17, CEPII research center.
- Thurlow, James & van Seventer, Dirk Ernst, 2002. "A standard computable general equilibrium model for South Africa," TMD discussion papers 100, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- David Card, 1995.
"The Wage Curve: A Review,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 285-299, June.
- David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "An Introduction to the Wage Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 153-167, Summer.
- François Bourguignon & William H. Branson & Jaime de Melo, 1989. "Macroeconomic Adjustment and Income Distribution: A Macro-Micro Simulation Model," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 1, OECD Publishing.
- Frankel, Jeffrey & Smit, Ben & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2007.
"South Africa: Macroeconomic Challenges after a Decade of Success,"
Working Paper Series
rwp07-021, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Jeffrey Frankel & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2008. "South Africa: Macroeconomic challenges after a decade of success," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(4), pages 639-677, October.
- Jan van Heerden & Reyer Gerlagh & James Blignaut & Mark Horridge & Sebastiaan Hess & Ramos Mabugu & Margaret Mabugu, 2006. "Searching for Triple Dividends in South Africa: Fighting CO2 Pollution and Poverty while Promoting Growth," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 113-142.
- Ramos Mabugu & Margaret Chitiga, 2007. "Poverty and Inequality Impacts of Trade Policy Reforms in South Africa," Working Papers MPIA 2007-19, PEP-MPIA.
- repec:fth:prinin:343 is not listed on IDEAS
- Kitwiwattanachai, Anyarath & Nelson, Doug & Reed, Geoffrey, 2010. "Quantitative impacts of alternative East Asia Free Trade Areas: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) assessment," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 286-301, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Melt van Schoor).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.