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Testing for hypothetical bias in willingness to support a reforestation program

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  • Krawczyk, Michał

Abstract

This study measures hypothetical bias in CVM-based estimates of willingness to support a forest protection and restoration program in Poland. It does so in two parallel ways: within- and between-subjects. To this end, participants are asked to vote in a referendum on an NGO-led reforestation project for various per-capita cost levels. They do so either directly or, as a surprise continuation, after a hypothetical analogue. Both methods deliver a similar (and substantial) level of hypothetical bias – it is slightly higher, but not significantly so, in the between-subject comparison. This suggests that hypothetical bias in this context is not primarily driven by such factors as consistency seeking or impression management.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Forest Economics.

Volume (Year): 18 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 282-289

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Handle: RePEc:eee:foreco:v:18:y:2012:i:4:p:282-289

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Related research

Keywords: Contingent valuation; Experimental methodology; Hypothetical bias; Matching; Reforestation;

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References

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  1. Madureira, Lívia & Nunes, Luis C. & Borges, José G. & Falcão, André O., 2011. "Assessing forest management strategies using a contingent valuation approach and advanced visualisation techniques: A Portuguese case study," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 399-414.
  2. James Murphy & P. Allen & Thomas Stevens & Darryl Weatherhead, 2005. "A Meta-analysis of Hypothetical Bias in Stated Preference Valuation," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 30(3), pages 313-325, 03.
  3. Loomis, John B. & Traynor, Kerri & Brown, Thomas C., 1999. "Trichotomous Choice: A Possible Solution To Dual Response Objectives In Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation Questions," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(02), December.
  4. Brown, Thomas C. & Ajzen, Icek & Hrubes, Daniel, 2003. "Further tests of entreaties to avoid hypothetical bias in referendum contingent valuation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 353-361, September.
  5. Harrison, Glenn W. & Rutström, E. Elisabet, 2008. "Experimental Evidence on the Existence of Hypothetical Bias in Value Elicitation Methods," Handbook of Experimental Economics Results, Elsevier.
  6. Messer, Kent D. & Poe, Gregory L. & Rondeau, Daniel & Schulze, William D. & Vossler, Christian A., 2008. "Social Preferences and Voting: An Exploration Using a Novel Preference Revealing Mechanism," Working Papers 51132, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
  7. Lindhjem, Henrik, 2006. "20 years of stated preference valuation of non-timber benefits from Fennoscandian forests: A meta-analysis," MPRA Paper 11467, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Alfnes, Frode & Yue, Chengyan & Jensen, Helen H., 2010. "Cognitive Dissonance As a Means of Reducing Hypothetical Bias," Staff General Research Papers 31300, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  9. Carson, Richard T & Groves, Theodore, 2010. "Incentive and Information Properties of Preference Questions," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt88d8644g, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  10. Mark Morrison & Thomas Brown, 2009. "Testing the Effectiveness of Certainty Scales, Cheap Talk, and Dissonance-Minimization in Reducing Hypothetical Bias in Contingent Valuation Studies," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 44(3), pages 307-326, November.
  11. Whitehead, John C. & Cherry, Todd L., 2007. "Willingness to pay for a Green Energy program: A comparison of ex-ante and ex-post hypothetical bias mitigation approaches," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 247-261, November.
  12. Frank, Bjorn, 1998. "Good news for experimenters: subjects do not care about your welfare," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 171-174, November.
  13. James J. Murphy & Thomas H. Stevens & Lava Yadav, 2010. "A Comparison of Induced Value and Home-Grown Value Experiments to Test for Hypothetical Bias in Contingent Valuation," Working Papers 2010-06, University of Alaska Anchorage, Department of Economics.
  14. Johansson-Stenman Olof & Svedsäter Henrik, 2008. "Measuring Hypothetical Bias in Choice Experiments: The Importance of Cognitive Consistency," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, September.
  15. Murphy, James J. & Stevens, Thomas H., 2004. "Contingent Valuation, Hypothetical Bias, and Experimental Economics," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 33(2), October.
  16. McConnell, K. E., 1997. "Does Altruism Undermine Existence Value?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 22-37, January.
  17. R. K. Blamey & J. W. Bennett & M. D. Morrison, 1999. "Yea-Saying in Contingent Valuation Surveys," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 75(1), pages 126-141.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Piotr Ćwiakowski & Marek Giergiczny & Michał Krawczyk, 2013. "Pirates in the lab. Using incentivized choice experiments to explore preference for (un)authorized content," Working Papers 2013-25, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
  2. Czajkowski, Mikołaj & Bartczak, Anna & Giergiczny, Marek & Navrud, Stale & Żylicz, Tomasz, 2014. "Providing preference-based support for forest ecosystem service management," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-12.

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