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High water, no marks? Biased lending after extreme weather

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  • Garbarino, Nicola
  • Guin, Benjamin

Abstract

Policymakers have put forward proposals to ensure that banks do not underestimate long-term risks from climate change. To examine how lenders account for extreme weather, we compare matched repeat mortgage and property transactions around a severe flood event in England in 2013–14. First, lender valuations do not “mark-to-market” against local price declines. As a result valuations are biased upwards. Second, lenders do not offset this valuation bias by adjusting interest rates or loan amounts. Third, borrowers with low credit risk self-select into high flood risk areas. Overall, these results suggest that lenders do not track closely the impact of extreme weather ex-post, and that public flood insurance programs subsidize high income households in some areas.

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  • Garbarino, Nicola & Guin, Benjamin, 2021. "High water, no marks? Biased lending after extreme weather," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:54:y:2021:i:c:s1572308921000346
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2021.100874
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kakuho Furukawa & Hibiki Ichiue & Noriyuki Shiraki, 2020. "How Does Climate Change Interact with the Financial System? A Survey," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 20-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    3. Garbarino, Nicola & Guin, Benjamin & Lee, Jonathan, 2022. "The Effects of Subsidized Flood Insurance on Real Estate Markets," Bank of England working papers 995, Bank of England.
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    6. Mercy Berman DeMenno, 2023. "Environmental sustainability and financial stability: can macroprudential stress testing measure and mitigate climate-related systemic financial risk?," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(4), pages 445-473, December.
    7. Noth, Felix & Schüwer, Ulrich, 2023. "Natural disasters and bank stability: Evidence from the U.S. financial system," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    8. Agus Sugiarto & Ni Nyoman Puspani & Mustika Septiyas Trisilia, 2023. "The Shocks of Climate Change on Bank Loans," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(5), pages 493-514, September.
    9. Robert Forster & Destan Kirimhan & Xiaojin Sun, 2022. "Deepwater Horizon and Mortgage Lending," Working Papers 202219, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    10. Chen, Zhenzhu & Li, Li & Tang, Yao, 2023. "Weather, Credit, and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 116472, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Justin Contat & Caroline Hopkins & Luis Mejia & Matthew Suandi, 2023. "When Climate Meets Real Estate: A Survey of the Literature," FHFA Staff Working Papers 23-05, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    12. Eszter Baranyai & Ádám Banai, 2022. "Heat projections and mortgage characteristics: evidence from the USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 175(3), pages 1-20, December.
    13. Maria Sole Pagliari, 2023. "LSIs’ Exposures to Climate-Change-Related Risks: An Approach to Assess Physical Risks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(1), pages 1-54, March.
    14. Noluthando Mngadi & Hossana Twinomurinzi, 2023. "Quantifying Causality between Climate Change and Credit Risk: A Bibliometric Study and Research Agenda," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-15, June.
    15. Eszter Baranyai & Adam Banai, 2022. "Feeling the Heat: Mortgage Lending and Central Bank Options," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 21(1), pages 5-31.
    16. Wu, Xin & Bai, Xiao & Qi, Hanying & Lu, Lanxin & Yang, Mingyuan & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2023. "The impact of climate change on banking systemic risk," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 419-437.
    17. Shala, Iliriana & Schumacher, Benno, 2022. "The impact of natural disasters on banks' impairment flow: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 36/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Bell, Jennifer & Battisti, Giuliana & Guin, Benjamin, 2023. "The greening of lending: mortgage pricing of energy transition risk," Bank of England working papers 1016, Bank of England.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate; Flooding; House prices; Mortgages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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