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LSIs’ Exposures to Climate-Change-Related Risks: An Approach to Assess Physical Risks

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  • Maria Sole Pagliari

    (Banque de France)

Abstract

This paper proposes an approach to estimate the impact of adverse climatic events on the profitability of small European banks (LSIs). By considering river flooding phenomena, we construct a unique database matching the information on location, frequency, and severity of floods with the location and balance sheet data of institutions mainly operating in the areas where they are headquartered (territorial LSIs). We compare the performance of territorial LSIs across regions at low and high flooding risk and test for the “core lending channel” hypothesis, whereby lending to the real economy is a catalyst of physical risks. Results show that an adverse event dropping loans to households and non-financial corporations by 1 percentage point of total assets entails a decrease in the return on assets (ROA) of territorial LSIs in riskier areas by 0.001 percentage point (3.1 percent). Moreover, if all territorial LSIs were located in riskier areas, the average ROA would drop by between 0.0001 and 0.52 percentage point for half of the banks in the sample, accounting for around 17 percent of the LSI sector’s assets.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Sole Pagliari, 2023. "LSIs’ Exposures to Climate-Change-Related Risks: An Approach to Assess Physical Risks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(1), pages 1-54, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2023:q:1:a:1
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    Cited by:

    1. Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2023. "No country is an island. International cooperation and climate change," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Shala, Iliriana & Schumacher, Benno, 2022. "The impact of natural disasters on banks' impairment flow: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 36/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Calice,Pietro & Miguel Liriano,Faruk, 2021. "Climate-Related and Environmental Risks for the Banking Sector in Latin America and the Caribbean : A Preliminary Assessment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9694, The World Bank.
    4. D'Orazio, Paola & Hertel, Tobias & Kasbrink, Fynn, 2022. "No need to worry? Estimating the exposure of the German banking sector to climate-related transition risks," Ruhr Economic Papers 946, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    5. Boneva, Lena & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2021. "To be or not to be “green”: how can monetary policy react to climate change?," Occasional Paper Series 285, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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