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Breaking the Bank? A Probabilistic Assessment of Euro Area Bank Profitability

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  • Elekdag, Selim
  • Malik, Sheheryar
  • Mitra, Srobona

Abstract

This paper explores the determinants of profitability across large euro area banks using an approach based on conditional profitability distributions. The most reliable determinants of bank profitability are real GDP growth and the nonperforming loan (NPL) ratio. The estimated conditional distributions reveal that, while higher growth would raise profits on average, a large swath of banks would most likely continue to struggle even amid a strong economic recovery. Therefore, for some banks, a determined reduction in NPLs combined with cost efficiency improvements and customized changes to their business models appears to be the most promising strategy for durably raising profitability.

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  • Elekdag, Selim & Malik, Sheheryar & Mitra, Srobona, 2020. "Breaking the Bank? A Probabilistic Assessment of Euro Area Bank Profitability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:120:y:2020:i:c:s0378426620302119
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2020.105949
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank profitability; Quantile regressions; Conditional distributions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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