IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/115164.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Факторы Риска, Прибыльности И Вероятности Дефолта В Российском Банковском Секторе
[Determinants of risk, profitability and probability of default for Russian banking sector]

Author

Listed:
  • Bekirova, Olga
  • Zubarev, Andrey

Abstract

Banks, acting as intermediaries in conducting settlements and providing liquidity to economic agents, play an important role in modern economic systems. At the same time, banking activity is associated with many risks that necessitates control from the regulator. Over the past 9 years, the Russian banking sector has experienced a transformation that resulted in a more than halving of the number of players in the banking system. However, a revoking a bank's license is not always associated with financial difficulties. In this paper, based on quarterly data on the financial statements of Russian banks for the period from mid-2013 to early 2022, using econometric methods of analysis, we estimated the factors that affect both the probability of bank default as well as other indicators of its activity – the risk of insolvency and profitability. The Z-score was used as an indicator of insolvency risk and the return on assets was used as an indicator of profitability. The results obtained showed that balance sheet ratios are significantly correlated with the probability of bank default, its risk of insolvency and profitability. The results support the “too-big-to-fail” hypothesis for the Russian banking sector, since larger banks have a lower probability of default, but a higher risk of insolvency. The insolvency risk is significantly negatively correlated with the probability of default and profitability.

Suggested Citation

  • Bekirova, Olga & Zubarev, Andrey, 2022. "Факторы Риска, Прибыльности И Вероятности Дефолта В Российском Банковском Секторе [Determinants of risk, profitability and probability of default for Russian banking sector]," MPRA Paper 115164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:115164
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/115164/1/MPRA_paper_115164.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antunes, António & Bonfim, Diana & Monteiro, Nuno & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2018. "Forecasting banking crises with dynamic panel probit models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 249-275.
    2. Caggiano, Giovanni & Calice, Pietro & Leonida, Leone, 2014. "Early warning systems and systemic banking crises in low income countries: A multinomial logit approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 258-269.
    3. Rebel Cole & Lawrence White, 2012. "Déjà Vu All Over Again: The Causes of U.S. Commercial Bank Failures This Time Around," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 5-29, October.
    4. DeYoung, Robert & Torna, Gökhan, 2013. "Nontraditional banking activities and bank failures during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 397-421.
    5. Forgione, Antonio Fabio & Migliardo, Carlo, 2018. "Forecasting distress in cooperative banks: The role of asset quality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 678-695.
    6. O'Hara, Maureen & Shaw, Wayne, 1990. "Deposit Insurance and Wealth Effects: The Value of Being "Too Big to Fail."," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1587-1600, December.
    7. Martin, Daniel, 1977. "Early warning of bank failure : A logit regression approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 249-276, November.
    8. Hwang, Dar-Yeh & Lee, Cheng F. & Liaw, K. Thomas, 1997. "Forecasting bank failures and deposit insurance premium," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 317-334.
    9. Assaf, A. George & Berger, Allen N. & Roman, Raluca A. & Tsionas, Mike G., 2019. "Does efficiency help banks survive and thrive during financial crises?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 445-470.
    10. Elekdag, Selim & Malik, Sheheryar & Mitra, Srobona, 2020. "Breaking the Bank? A Probabilistic Assessment of Euro Area Bank Profitability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    11. Shim, Jeungbo, 2019. "Loan portfolio diversification, market structure and bank stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 103-115.
    12. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bekirova, Olga & Zubarev, Andrey, 2023. "Determinants of risk, profitability and default probability of Russian banks," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 71, pages 20-38.
    2. Koresh Galil & Margalit Samuel & Offer Moshe Shapir & Wolf Wagner, 2023. "Bailouts and the modeling of bank distress," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 7-30, February.
    3. Lev Fomin, 2019. "Do Higher Interest Rates on Loans and Deposits and Advertising Spending Cuts Forecast Bank Failures? Evidence from Russia," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(2), pages 94-112, June.
    4. Calice, Pietro & Leonida, Leone & Muzzupappa, Eleonora, 2021. "Concentration-stability vs concentration-fragility. New cross-country evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Li Xian Liu & Shuangzhe Liu & Milind Sathye, 2021. "Predicting Bank Failures: A Synthesis of Literature and Directions for Future Research," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-24, October.
    6. Allen N. Berger & Björn Imbierowicz & Christian Rauch, 2016. "The Roles of Corporate Governance in Bank Failures during the Recent Financial Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 729-770, June.
    7. Sun, Junjie & Wu, Deming & Zhao, Xinlei, 2018. "Systematic risk factors and bank failures," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-18.
    8. Anggraeni, Anggraeni & Mongid, Abdul & Suhartono,, 2020. "Prediction Models for Bank Failure: ASEAN Countries," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 54(2), pages 41-51.
    9. Betz, Frank & Oprică, Silviu & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sarlin, Peter, 2014. "Predicting distress in European banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 225-241.
    10. Cleary, Sean & Hebb, Greg, 2016. "An efficient and functional model for predicting bank distress: In and out of sample evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 101-111.
    11. Suss, Joel & Treitel, Henry, 2019. "Predicting bank distress in the UK with machine learning," Bank of England working papers 831, Bank of England.
    12. Berger, Allen N. & Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli, 2021. "Banking research in the time of COVID-19," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    13. Manthoulis, Georgios & Doumpos, Michalis & Zopounidis, Constantin & Galariotis, Emilios, 2020. "An ordinal classification framework for bank failure prediction: Methodology and empirical evidence for US banks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(2), pages 786-801.
    14. Kristóf, Tamás & Virág, Miklós, 2022. "EU-27 bank failure prediction with C5.0 decision trees and deep learning neural networks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    15. Quentin Bro de Comères, 2022. "Predicting European Banks Distress Events: Do Financial Information Producers Matter?," Working Papers hal-03752678, HAL.
    16. Pierluigi Bologna, 2015. "Structural Funding and Bank Failures," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 81-113, February.
    17. D. Fernández-Arias & M. López-Martín & T. Montero-Romero & F. Martínez-Estudillo & F. Fernández-Navarro, 2018. "Financial Soundness Prediction Using a Multi-classification Model: Evidence from Current Financial Crisis in OECD Banks," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(1), pages 275-297, June.
    18. Fiordelisi, Franco & Mare, Davide Salvatore, 2013. "Probability of default and efficiency in cooperative banking," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 30-45.
    19. Mare, Davide Salvatore, 2015. "Contribution of macroeconomic factors to the prediction of small bank failures," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 25-39.
    20. Filippopoulou, Chryssanthi & Galariotis, Emilios & Spyrou, Spyros, 2020. "An early warning system for predicting systemic banking crises in the Eurozone: A logit regression approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 344-363.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking sector; banking license revocation; insolvency risk; Z-score; return on assets; liquidity creation; Bank of Russia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:115164. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.