IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v124y2023ics0140988323002682.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of China's pilot carbon ETS on the labor income share: Based on an empirical method of combining PSM with staggered DID

Author

Listed:
  • Xiao, De
  • Yu, Fan
  • Guo, Chenhao

Abstract

The carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS), which restricts carbon emission permit allowances, affects firms' decisions on labor and capital use in production. Taking China's ETS as a quasi-natural experiment and using firm-level panel data from 2009 to 2019, this study evaluates the impact of China's pilot carbon ETS on the labor income share. We adopt the Propensity Score Matching combined with Staggered Difference-in-Differences method, allowing considerable treatment effect heterogeneity. The estimated results of the overall treatment effect show that China's pilot carbon ETS significantly increases the labor income share. When we consider the treatment effect heterogeneity across calendar time, entry cohort, and length of policy exposure, most coefficients remain significantly positive. These findings provide initial empirical evidence that climate policy may help reduce excessive dependence on capital and fossil energy, thereby alleviating the global trend of declining labor income share.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiao, De & Yu, Fan & Guo, Chenhao, 2023. "The impact of China's pilot carbon ETS on the labor income share: Based on an empirical method of combining PSM with staggered DID," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:124:y:2023:i:c:s0140988323002682
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106770
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988323002682
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106770?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gene M. Grossman & Ezra Oberfield, 2021. "The Elusive Explanation for the Declining Labor Share," NBER Working Papers 29165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Clément de Chaisemartin & Xavier D'Haultfœuille, 2020. "Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2964-2996, September.
    3. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng (Michael) Song, 2015. "Grasp the Large, Let Go of the Small: The Transformation of the State Sector in China," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 295-366.
    4. Berman, Eli & Bui, Linda T. M., 2001. "Environmental regulation and labor demand: evidence from the South Coast Air Basin," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 265-295, February.
    5. Daron Acemoglu & Claire Lelarge & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Competing with Robots: Firm-Level Evidence from France," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 383-388, May.
    6. Brent Neiman, 2014. "The Global Decline of the Labor Share," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 61-103.
    7. Alvarez-Cuadrado, Francisco & Long, Ngo Van & Poschke, Markus, 2018. "Capital-labor substitution, structural change and the labor income share," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 206-231.
    8. Don Fullerton & Garth Heutel, 2010. "The General Equilibrium Incidence of Environmental Mandates," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 64-89, August.
    9. Sharimakin, Akinsehinwa, 2019. "Measuring the energy input substitution and output effects of energy price changes and the implications for the environment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Shi, Hongliang, 2011. "Substitution between energy and classical factor inputs in the Chinese steel sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 361-367, January.
    11. Mai Chi Dao & Mitali Das & Zsoka Koczan, 2019. "Why is labour receiving a smaller share of global income?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 34(100), pages 723-759.
    12. Fullerton Don & Heutel Garth, 2011. "Analytical General Equilibrium Effects of Energy Policy on Output and Factor Prices," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-26, January.
    13. Parry, Ian W. H., 2004. "Are emissions permits regressive?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 364-387, March.
    14. David Autor & David Dorn & Lawrence F Katz & Christina Patterson & John Van Reenen, 2020. "The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms [“Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(2), pages 645-709.
    15. Marco Caliendo & Sabine Kopeinig, 2008. "Some Practical Guidance For The Implementation Of Propensity Score Matching," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 31-72, February.
    16. Chen, Lifeng & Wang, Kaifeng, 2022. "The spatial spillover effect of low-carbon city pilot scheme on green efficiency in China's cities: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    17. Du, Yimeng & Takeuchi, Kenji, 2019. "Can climate mitigation help the poor? Measuring impacts of the CDM in rural China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 178-197.
    18. Dongya Koh & Raül Santaeulàlia‐Llopis & Yu Zheng, 2020. "Labor Share Decline and Intellectual Property Products Capital," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(6), pages 2609-2628, November.
    19. Lin, Boqiang & Xie, Chunping, 2014. "Energy substitution effect on transport industry of China-based on trans-log production function," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 213-222.
    20. Michael Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Ayseful Sahin, 2013. "The Decline of the U.S. Labor Share," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(2 (Fall)), pages 1-63.
    21. Andrew Glover & Jacob Short, 2020. "Can Capital Deepening Explain the Global Decline in Labor's Share?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 35-53, January.
    22. Kónya, István & Krekó, Judit & Oblath, Gábor, 2020. "Labor shares in the old and new EU member states - Sectoral effects and the role of relative prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 254-272.
    23. Li, Jianglong & Lin, Boqiang, 2016. "Inter-factor/inter-fuel substitution, carbon intensity, and energy-related CO2 reduction: Empirical evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 483-494.
    24. Matthias Kehrig & Nicolas Vincent, 2021. "The Micro-Level Anatomy of the Labor Share Decline," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(2), pages 1031-1087.
    25. Adetutu, Morakinyo O. & Glass, Anthony J. & Weyman-Jones, Thomas G., 2016. "Decomposing energy demand across BRIIC countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 396-404.
    26. Magnus, Jan R, 1979. "Substitution between Energy and Non-Energy Inputs in the Netherlands, 1950-1976," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 20(2), pages 465-484, June.
    27. John FitzGerald, 2020. "National Accounts for a Global Economy: The Case of Ireland," NBER Chapters, in: Challenges of Globalization in the Measurement of National Accounts, pages 65-101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Paul, Saumik & Isaka, Hironobu, 2019. "Labor Income Share at the Firm Level: Global Trends," IZA Discussion Papers 12852, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    29. Thompson, Henry, 2006. "The applied theory of energy substitution in production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 410-425, July.
    30. A. Smith, Jeffrey & E. Todd, Petra, 2005. "Does matching overcome LaLonde's critique of nonexperimental estimators?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1-2), pages 305-353.
    31. Yang, Lisha & Li, Yutianhao & Liu, Hongxun, 2021. "Did carbon trade improve green production performance? Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    32. Bertoni, Danilo & Curzi, Daniele & Aletti, Giacomo & Olper, Alessandro, 2020. "Estimating the effects of agri-environmental measures using difference-in-difference coarsened exact matching," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    33. Yu, Fan & Xiao, De & Chang, Meng-Shiuh, 2021. "The impact of carbon emission trading schemes on urban-rural income inequality in China: A multi-period difference-in-differences method," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    34. Bentolila Samuel & Saint-Paul Gilles, 2003. "Explaining Movements in the Labor Share," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-33, October.
    35. Bridgman, Benjamin, 2018. "Is Labor'S Loss Capital'S Gain? Gross Versus Net Labor Shares," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(8), pages 2070-2087, December.
    36. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    37. Burtraw, Dallas & Palmer, Karen & Bharvirkar, Ranjit & Paul, Anthony, 2002. "The Effect on Asset Values of the Allocation of Carbon Dioxide Emission Allowances," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 51-62, June.
    38. Rajiv D. Banker & Danlu Bu & Mihir N. Mehta, 2016. "Pay Gap and Performance in China," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 52(3), pages 501-531, September.
    39. Zha, Donglan & Ding, Ning, 2014. "Elasticities of substitution between energy and non-energy inputs in China power sector," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 564-571.
    40. Daniel McFadden, 1963. "Constant Elasticity of Substitution Production Functions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 30(2), pages 73-83.
    41. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng (Michael) Song, 2015. "Grasp the Large, Let Go of the Small: The Transformation of the State Sector in China," NBER Working Papers 21006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    42. Ben Zipperer & Peter Skott, 2011. "Cyclical patterns of employment, utilization, and profitability," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 25-58.
    43. Bureau, Benjamin, 2011. "Distributional effects of a carbon tax on car fuels in France," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 121-130, January.
    44. Yamazaki, Akio, 2017. "Jobs and climate policy: Evidence from British Columbia's revenue-neutral carbon tax," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 197-216.
    45. Robert G. Chambers, 1982. "Duality, the Output Effect, and Applied Comparative Statics," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 64(1), pages 152-156.
    46. Dinan, Terry & Rogers, Diane Lim, 2002. "Distributional Effects of Carbon AllowanceTrading: How Government Decisions Determine Winners and Losers," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 55(2), pages 199-221, June.
    47. Rinne, Sonja, 2019. "Radioinactive: Do nuclear power plant outages in France affect the German electricity prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(S1).
    48. Emilie Daudey & Cecilia Garcia-Penalosa, 2007. "The personal and the factor distributions of income in a cross-section of countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(5), pages 812-829.
    49. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng (Michael) Song, 2015. "Grasp the Large, Let Go of the Small: The Transformation of the State Sector in China," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(1 (Spring), pages 295-366.
    50. David A. Matsa, 2010. "Capital Structure as a Strategic Variable: Evidence from Collective Bargaining," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(3), pages 1197-1232, June.
    51. Junming Zhu & Yichun Fan & Xinghua Deng & Lan Xue, 2019. "Low-carbon innovation induced by emissions trading in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-8, December.
    52. Kemfert, Claudia & Welsch, Heinz, 2000. "Energy-Capital-Labor Substitution and the Economic Effects of CO2 Abatement: Evidence for Germany," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 641-660, November.
    53. Li, Bing & Liu, Chang & Sun, Stephen Teng, 2021. "Do corporate income tax cuts decrease labor share? Regression discontinuity evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    54. Greenman, J. V. & Drollas, L. P., 1987. "The price of energy and factor substitution in the US economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 159-166, July.
    55. Berndt, Ernst R & Wood, David O, 1975. "Technology, Prices, and the Derived Demand for Energy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 57(3), pages 259-268, August.
    56. Song, Eunbi, 2021. "What drives labor share change? Evidence from Korean industries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 370-385.
    57. Longfei He & Chenglin Hu & Daozhi Zhao & Haili Lu & Xiaoxi Fu & Yiyu Li, 2016. "Carbon emission mitigation through regulatory policies and operations adaptation in supply chains: theoretic developments and extensions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(1), pages 179-207, November.
    58. Imai, Kosuke & Kim, In Song, 2021. "On the Use of Two-Way Fixed Effects Regression Models for Causal Inference with Panel Data," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 405-415, July.
    59. Ahsan, Reshad N. & Mitra, Devashish, 2014. "Trade liberalization and labor's slice of the pie: Evidence from Indian firms," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-16.
    60. Su, Xuanming & Zhou, Weisheng & Nakagami, Ken'Ichi & Ren, Hongbo & Mu, Hailin, 2012. "Capital stock-labor-energy substitution and production efficiency study for China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1208-1213.
    61. vom Lehn, Christian, 2018. "Understanding the decline in the U.S. labor share: Evidence from occupational tasks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 191-220.
    62. Keting Shen & John Whalley, 2013. "Capital-Labor-Energy Substitution in Nested CES Production Functions for China," NBER Working Papers 19104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    63. Hu, Yucai & Ren, Shenggang & Wang, Yangjie & Chen, Xiaohong, 2020. "Can carbon emission trading scheme achieve energy conservation and emission reduction? Evidence from the industrial sector in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    64. Zhang, Xun & Wan, Guanghua & Wang, Xu, 2017. "Road infrastructure and the share of labor income: Evidence from China’s manufacturing sector," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 513-523.
    65. Chih‐Hai Yang & Meng‐Wen Tsou, 2021. "Globalization and the labor share in China: Firm‐level evidence," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(1), pages 1-23, January.
    66. Dinan, Terry & Rogers, Diane Lim, 2002. "Distributional Effects of Carbon AllowanceTrading: How Government Decisions Determine Winners and Losers," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 55(N. 2), pages 199-221, June.
    67. Drago Bergholt & Francesco Furlanetto & Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli, 2022. "The Decline of the Labor Share: New Empirical Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 163-198, July.
    68. Iacus, Stefano M. & King, Gary & Porro, Giuseppe, 2012. "Causal Inference without Balance Checking: Coarsened Exact Matching," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 1-24, January.
    69. James J. Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Petra Todd, 1998. "Matching As An Econometric Evaluation Estimator," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(2), pages 261-294.
    70. Gerlagh, Reyer, 2008. "A climate-change policy induced shift from innovations in carbon-energy production to carbon-energy savings," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 425-448, March.
    71. BAI, Chong-En & QIAN, Zhenjie, 2010. "The factor income distribution in China: 1978-2007," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 650-670, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Roya Taherifar & Mark J. Holmes & Gazi M. Hassan, 2023. "The drivers of labour share and impact on pay inequality: A firm-level investigation," Working Papers in Economics 23/03, University of Waikato.
    2. Guimarães, Luís & Mazeda Gil, Pedro, 2022. "Explaining the Labor Share: Automation Vs Labor Market Institutions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    3. Bom, Pedro R.D. & Erauskin, Iñaki, 2022. "Productive government investment and the labor share," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 347-363.
    4. Li, Bing & Liu, Chang & Sun, Stephen Teng, 2021. "Do corporate income tax cuts decrease labor share? Regression discontinuity evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    5. Matteo G. Richiardi & Luis Valenzuela, 2024. "Firm heterogeneity and the aggregate labour share," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 38(1), pages 66-101, March.
    6. Alessandro Bellocchi & Giovanni Marin & Giuseppe Travaglini, 2021. "The Great Fall of Labor Share:Micro Determinants for EU Countries Over 2011-2019," Working Papers 2102, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2021.
    7. He, Yongda & Lin, Boqiang, 2019. "Heterogeneity and asymmetric effects in energy resources allocation of the manufacturing sectors in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1019-1035.
    8. Reshef, Ariell & Santoni, Gianluca, 2023. "Are your labor shares set in Beijing? The view through the lens of global value chains," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    9. Song, Eunbi, 2021. "What drives labor share change? Evidence from Korean industries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 370-385.
    10. Kostarakos, Ilias, 2020. "Determinants of the (non-Housing) Labour Income Share in the EU," Papers WP693, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    11. Emilien Gouin-Bonenfant, 2018. "Productivity Dispersion, Between-firm Competition and the Labor Share," 2018 Meeting Papers 1171, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Castex, Gonzalo & (Stanley) Cho, Sang-Wook & Dechter, Evgenia, 2022. "The decline in capital-skill complementarity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    13. Kraft, Kornelius & Lammers, Alexander, 2021. "Bargaining Power and the Labor Share - a Structural Break Approach," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242342, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/5j3i17uo7399t940lrt6h6n545 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Panon, Ludovic, 2022. "Labor share, foreign demand and superstar exporters," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    16. Kausik, B.N., 2023. "Cognitive Aging and Labor Share," MPRA Paper 118406, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Feijoo Moreira, Sergio, 2022. "Inside the decline of the labor share: Technical change, market power, and structural change," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    18. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Boubtane, Ekrame & Coulibaly, Dramane, 2021. "Demographic changes and the labor income share," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    19. Mertens, Matthias, 2022. "Micro-mechanisms behind declining labor shares: Rising market power and changing modes of production," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    20. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5j3i17uo7399t940lrt6h6n545 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Anna M. Stansbury & Lawrence H. Summers, 2017. "Productivity and Pay: Is the link broken?," NBER Working Papers 24165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Benjamin Bridgman & Ryan Greenaway‐McGrevy, 2022. "Public enterprise and the rise and fall of labor share," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(1), pages 320-350, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carbon ETS; Labor income share; Propensity score matching; Staggered difference-in-differences;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D33 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Factor Income Distribution
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:124:y:2023:i:c:s0140988323002682. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.