IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eecrev/v102y2018icp240-279.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Industrial output fluctuations in developing countries: General equilibrium consequences of agricultural productivity shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Lee, Iona Hyojung

Abstract

This paper shows that a negative shock to agricultural productivity may increase food prices, and labor and capital can move away from manufacturing into agriculture to meet the subsistence requirement for food. This effect depends on income levels and openness to trade. Using annual manufacturing data and rainfall shocks as the instrument for crop yields (proxy for agricultural productivity), I find that an exogenous decline in yield decreases manufacturing output as well as employment and capital investment in manufacturing. Overall, crop yield variation can explain up to 44% of industrial output fluctuations in developing countries (rainfall shocks cause 31% of the fluctuations). Lastly, this paper shows that such perverse phenomena, in which resources move toward the sector with declining productivity, can lead to a significant reduction in aggregate productivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Iona Hyojung, 2018. "Industrial output fluctuations in developing countries: General equilibrium consequences of agricultural productivity shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 240-279.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:102:y:2018:i:c:p:240-279
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2017.10.024
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292117302180
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2017.10.024?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
    2. Jose Maria Da Rocha & Diego Restuccia, 2006. "The Role of Agriculture in Aggregate Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(3), pages 455-482, July.
    3. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2007. "Comparative Advantage and the Cross-section of Business Cycles," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(6), pages 1300-1333, December.
    4. Gollin, Douglas & Parente, Stephen L. & Rogerson, Richard, 2007. "The food problem and the evolution of international income levels," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1230-1255, May.
    5. Alejandro Cuñat & Marc J. Melitz, 2012. "Volatility, Labor Market Flexibility, And The Pattern Of Comparative Advantage," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 225-254, April.
    6. Miklós Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2013. "Technological Diversification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(1), pages 378-414, February.
    7. Restuccia, Diego & Yang, Dennis Tao & Zhu, Xiaodong, 2008. "Agriculture and aggregate productivity: A quantitative cross-country analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 234-250, March.
    8. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2012. "Export Restrictions and Price Insulation During Commodity Price Booms," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(2), pages 422-427.
    9. Sharon Maccini & Dean Yang, 2009. "Under the Weather: Health, Schooling, and Economic Consequences of Early-Life Rainfall," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1006-1026, June.
    10. Dercon, Stefan, 2004. "Growth and shocks: evidence from rural Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 309-329, August.
    11. Miklós Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Volatility and Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(1), pages 243-287.
    12. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2012. "The Risk Content of Exports: A Portfolio View of International Trade," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 97-151.
    13. Uy, Timothy & Yi, Kei-Mu & Zhang, Jing, 2013. "Structural change in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 667-682.
    14. repec:hoo:wpaper:e-92-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Krishna, Pravin & Levchenko, Andrei A., 2013. "Comparative advantage, complexity, and volatility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 314-329.
    16. Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Christophe Gouel, 2014. "Food Price Volatility and Domestic Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 261-306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1992. "Agricultural productivity, comparative advantage, and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 317-334, December.
    19. Anderson, Kym & Nelgen, Signe, 2012. "Trade Barrier Volatility and Agricultural Price Stabilization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 36-48.
    20. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    21. van Wijnbergen, Sweder J G, 1984. "The 'Dutch Disease': A Disease after All?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 41-55, March.
    22. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, May.
    23. Kose, M. Ayhan, 2002. "Explaining business cycles in small open economies: 'How much do world prices matter?'," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 299-327, March.
    24. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2009. "Trade Openness and Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 558-585, August.
    25. Burgess, Robin & Donaldson, Dave, 2012. "Can openness to trade reduce income volatility? Evidence from colonial India's famine era," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 54255, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    26. Berthold Herrendorf & Richard Rogerson & ?kos Valentinyi, 2013. "Two Perspectives on Preferences and Structural Transformation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 2752-2789, December.
    27. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    28. Trevor Tombe, 2015. "The Missing Food Problem: Trade, Agriculture, and International Productivity Differences," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 226-258, July.
    29. Seema Jayachandran, 2006. "Selling Labor Low: Wage Responses to Productivity Shocks in Developing Countries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 538-575, June.
    30. Douglas Gollin & Stephen Parente & Richard Rogerson, 2002. "The Role of Agriculture in Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 160-164, May.
    31. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2012. "Country Size, International Trade, and Aggregate Fluctuations in Granular Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(6), pages 1083-1132.
    32. Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Birru, Yohannes A., 2009. "Inflation dynamics and food prices in an agricultural economy : the case of Ethiopia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4969, The World Bank.
    33. Bhalotra, Sonia, 2010. "Fatal fluctuations? Cyclicality in infant mortality in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 7-19, September.
    34. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    35. Gollin, Douglas & Rogerson, Richard, 2014. "Productivity, transport costs and subsistence agriculture," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 38-48.
    36. David Lagakos & Michael E. Waugh, 2013. "Selection, Agriculture, and Cross-Country Productivity Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 948-980, April.
    37. John Laitner, 2000. "Structural Change and Economic Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 67(3), pages 545-561.
    38. Malik, Adeel & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2009. "The geography of output volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 163-178, November.
    39. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
    40. Charles I. Jones, 2011. "Misallocation, Economic Growth, and Input-Output Economics," NBER Working Papers 16742, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1991. "Technology Commitment and the Cost of Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 3755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    42. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Elguellab, Ali & Ezzahid, Elhadj, 2023. "Dissecting the Moroccan business cycle: A trade-based identification of agricultural supply shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    2. Hiroyuki Takeshima & Bedru B. Balana & Jenny Smart & Hyacinth O. Edeh & Motunrayo Ayowumi Oyeyemi & Kwaw S. Andam, 2022. "Subnational public expenditures, short‐term household‐level welfare, and economic flexibility: Evidence from Nigeria," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(5), pages 739-755, September.
    3. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Productive capacities, structural economic vulnerability and fiscal space volatility in developing countries," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 45(3), pages 25-48.
    4. Abiola John Asaleye & Rotdelmwa Filibus Maimako & Henry Inegbedion & Adedoyin Isola Lawal & Adeyemi A. Ogundipe, 2021. "Real Exchange Rate and Manufacturing Performance in Nigeria," Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Richtmann Publishing Ltd, vol. 10, March.
    5. Treb Allen & David Atkin, 2022. "Volatility and the Gains From Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(5), pages 2053-2092, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Emerick, Kyle, 2018. "Agricultural productivity and the sectoral reallocation of labor in rural India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 488-503.
    2. Daniela MAGGIONI & Alessia LO TURCO & Mauro GALLEGATI, 2014. "Does export complexity matter for firms' output volatility?," Working Papers 407, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    3. Herrendorf, Berthold & Rogerson, Richard & Valentinyi, Ákos, 2014. "Growth and Structural Transformation," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 855-941, Elsevier.
    4. Montalbano, Pierluigi, 2011. "Trade Openness and Developing Countries' Vulnerability: Concepts, Misconceptions, and Directions for Research," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1489-1502, September.
    5. Dorinet, Elizavetta & Jouvet, Pierre-André & Wolfersberger, Julien, 2021. "Is the agricultural sector cursed too? Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    6. Tasso Adamopoulos & Diego Restuccia, 2022. "Geography and Agricultural Productivity: Cross-Country Evidence from Micro Plot-Level Data," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(4), pages 1629-1653.
    7. Dorinet, Elizavetta & Jouvet, Pierre-André & Wolfersberger, Julien, 2021. "Is the agricultural sector cursed too? Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    8. Jung, Yeonha, 2020. "The long reach of cotton in the US South: Tenant farming, mechanization, and low-skill manufacturing," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    9. Gangopadhyay, Kausik & Mondal, Debasis, 2021. "Productivity, relative sectoral prices, and total factor productivity: Theory and evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    10. Unjung Whang, 2017. "Structural Transformation and Comparative Advantage: Implications for Small Open Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 743-763, April.
    11. Barker, Tom & Üngör, Murat, 2019. "Vietnam: The next asian Tiger?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 96-118.
    12. Murat Ungor, 2017. "Productivity Growth and Labor Reallocation: Latin America versus East Asia," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 24, pages 25-42, March.
    13. McArthur, John W. & McCord, Gordon C., 2017. "Fertilizing growth: Agricultural inputs and their effects in economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 133-152.
    14. Joya, Omar & Rougier, Eric, 2019. "Do (all) sectoral shocks lead to aggregate volatility? Empirics from a production network perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 77-107.
    15. Jansen, Marion & Piermartini, Roberta & Lennon, Carolina, 2009. "Exposure to External Country Specific Shocks and Income Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 7123, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Ho, Chi Pui, 2015. "Population growth and structural transformation," MPRA Paper 68014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Maggioni, Daniela & Lo Turco, Alessia & Gallegati, Mauro, 2016. "Does product complexity matter for firms' output volatility?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 94-109.
    18. Teignier, Marc, 2018. "The role of trade in structural transformation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 45-65.
    19. Paula Bustos & Juan Manuel Castro Vincenzi & Joan Monras & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2019. "Structural Transformation, Industrial Specialization, and Endogenous Growth," Working Papers wp2019_1906, CEMFI.
    20. Krishna, Pravin & Levchenko, Andrei A., 2013. "Comparative advantage, complexity, and volatility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 314-329.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic fluctuations; International trade; Development; International comparisons; Agriculture;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:102:y:2018:i:c:p:240-279. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.