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Fatal Fluctuations? Cyclicality in Infant Mortality in India

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Author Info
Sonia Bhalotra () (University of Bristol and IZA)

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Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of macroeconomic shocks on infant mortality in India and investigates likely mechanisms. A recent OECD-dominated literature shows that mortality at most ages is pro-cyclical but similar analyses for poorer countries are scarce, and both income risk and mortality risk are greater in poor countries. This paper uses individual data on infant mortality for about 150000 children born in 1970-1997, merged by birth-cohort with a state panel containing information on aggregate income. Identification rests upon comparing the effects of annual deviations in income from trend on the mortality risks of children born at different times to the same mother, conditional upon a number of state-time varying covariates including rainshocks. I cannot reject the null that income shocks have no effect on mortality in urban households, but I find that rural infant mortality is counter-cyclical, the elasticity being about -0.46. This is despite the possibility that relatively high risk women avert birth or suffer fetal loss in recessions. It seems related to the fact that women’s participation in the (informal) labour market increases in recessions, presumably, to compensate a decline in their husband’s wages. Consistent with this but, in contrast to results for richer countries, antenatal and postnatal health-care decline in recessions. These effects are reinforced by pro-cyclicality in state health and development expenditure. Another interesting finding that is informative about the underlying mechanisms is that the effect of aggregate income on rural mortality is driven by non-agricultural income.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 3086.

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Length: 61 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2007
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Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3086

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Related research
Keywords: infant mortality; income volatility; business cycles; India; health care; maternal labour supply; public expenditure;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Production
J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
O49 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Other

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ferreira, Francisco H. G. & Schady, Norbert, 2008. "Aggregate economic shocks, child schooling and child health," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4701, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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