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Technological diversification

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Author Info
Miklós Koren
Silvana Tenreyro

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Abstract

Why is GDP so much more volatile in poor countries than in rich ones? To answer this question, we propose a theory of technological diversification. Production makes use of different input varieties, which are subject to imperfectly correlated shocks. As in endogenous growth models, technological progress increases the number of varieties, raising average productivity. The new insight is that an expansion in the number of varieties also lowers the volatility of output. This is because additional varieties provide diversification benefits against variety-specific shocks. In the model, technological complexity evolves endogenously in response to profit incentives. Complexity (and hence output stability) is positively related with the development of the country, the comparative advantage of the sector, and the sector’s skill and technology intensity. Using sector-level data for a broad sample of countries, we provide extensive empirical evidence confirming the cross-country and cross-sectoral predictions of the model.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its series Working Papers with number 05-1.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:05-1

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Keywords: Gross domestic product ; Technology - Economic aspects;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  3. Francesco Caselli & Wilbur John Coleman II, 2001. "Cross-Country Technology Diffusion: The Case of Computers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 328-335, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Bernard, Andrew & Jensen, J Bradford & Redding, Stephen J & Schott, Peter, 2007. "Firms in International Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 6277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Tor Jakob Klette & Samuel Kortum, 2004. "Innovating Firms and Aggregate Innovation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 986-1018, October.
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  7. Overman, Henry G. & Rice, Patricia & Venables, Anthony J., 2008. "Economic Linkages Across Space," CEPR Discussion Papers 6786, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2007. "Comparative Advantage and the Cross-section of Business Cycles," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(6), pages 1300-1333, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Alejandro Cuñat & Marc J. Melitz, 2007. "Volatility, Labor Market Flexibility, and the Pattern of Comparative Advantage," NBER Working Papers 13062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
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  11. Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1992. "Technological choice, financial markets and economic development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 763-781, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Caselli, Francesco & Wilson, Daniel J., 2004. "Importing technology," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 1-32, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Diego Comin & Thomas Philippon, 2005. "The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 11388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Greenwood, J. & Jovanovic, B., 1990. "Financial Development, Growth, And The Distribution Of Income," University of Western Ontario, The Centre for the Study of International Economic Relations Working Papers 9002, University of Western Ontario, The Centre for the Study of International Economic Relations.
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  15. Francesco Caselli, 2007. "The Marginal Product of Capital," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 122(2), pages 535-568, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Comin, D. & Hobijn, B., 2004. "Cross-country technology adoption: making the theories face the facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 39-83, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Jaume Ventura, 1998. "Comparative Advantage and the Cross-Section of Business Cycles," Working papers 98-9, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  19. Ross Levine, 1990. "Financial structure and economic development," International Finance Discussion Papers 381, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  20. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Acemoglu, Daron & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1997. "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification, and Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 709-51, August.
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  22. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2006. "Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms," NBER Working Papers 12354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Cuberes, David & Jerzmanowski, Michal, 2008. "Democracy, Diversification, and Growth Reversals," MPRA Paper 11646, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Miklos Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "Volatility and Development," CEP Discussion Papers dp0706, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Dalila NICET- CHENAF (GREThA UMR CNRS 5113) & Eric ROUGIER (GREThA UMR CNRS 5113), 2008. "Recent exports matter: export discoveries, FDI and Growth, an empirical assessment for MENA countries," Cahiers du GREThA 2008-22, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Catia Batista & Jacques Potin, 2007. "Stages of diversification and specialization in an Heckscher-Ohlin world, 1976-2000," Economics Series Working Papers 356, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Diego Comin & Thomas Philippon, 2005. "The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 11388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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