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Inference in a synchronization game with social interactions

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  • de Paula, Áureo

Abstract

This paper studies inference in a continuous time game where an agent's decision to quit an activity depends on the participation of other players. In equilibrium, similar actions can be explained not only by direct influences but also by correlated factors. Our model can be seen as a simultaneous duration model with multiple decision makers and interdependent durations. We study the problem of determining the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium stopping strategies in this setting. This paper provides results and conditions for the detection of these endogenous effects. First, we show that the presence of such effects is a necessary and sufficient condition for simultaneous exits. This allows us to set up a nonparametric test for the presence of such influences, which is robust to multiple equilibria. Second, we provide conditions under which parameters in the game are identified. Finally, we apply the model to data on desertion in the Union Army during the American Civil War, and find evidence of endogenous influences.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 148 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 56-71

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:148:y:2009:i:1:p:56-71

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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Keywords: Duration Optimal stopping Game estimation Coordination;

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  8. McManus, Douglas A., 1992. "How common is identification in parametric models?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 5-23.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bo Honore & Aureo de Paula, 2008. "Interdependent Durations," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-007, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  2. Onur Özgür, 2010. "Local Interactions," CIRANO Working Papers 2010s-37, CIRANO.
  3. Franco Peracchi & Claudio Rossetti, 2013. "The heterogeneous thresholds ordered response model: identification and inference," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 176(3), pages 703-722, 06.
  4. Bo E. Honoré & Aureo de Paula, 2009. ""Interdependent Durations" Third Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-039, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Feb 2008.
  5. Steven N. Durlauf & Yannis M. Ioannides, 2010. "Social Interactions," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 451-478, 09.
  6. Aureo de Paula, 2012. "Econometric analysis of games with multiple equilibria," CeMMAP working papers CWP29/12, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  7. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf, 2009. "Adoption Curves and Social Interactions," NBER Working Papers 15065, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Bo Honoré & Áureo de Paula, 2011. "Interdependent Durations in Joint Retirement," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2011-5, Center for Retirement Research, revised Feb 2011.
  9. Onur Ozgur & Alberto Bisin, 2011. "Dynamic linear economies with social interactions," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000036, David K. Levine.
  10. Ethan Cohen-Cole & Andrei Kirilenko & Eleonora Patacchini, 2010. "Are Networks Priced? Network Topology and Order Trading Strategies in High Liquidity Markets," EIEF Working Papers Series 1011, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Apr 2010.
  11. ÖZGÜR, Onur & BISIN, Alberto, 2011. "Dynamic Linear Economies with Social Interactions," Cahiers de recherche 04-2011, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  12. Seth Richards-Shubik, 2012. "Peer Effects in Sexual Initiation: Separating Demand and Supply Mechanisms," PIER Working Paper Archive 12-015, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  13. Bo E. Honore & Aureo de Paula, 2007. "Interdependent Durations, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-044, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Nov 2008.

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