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Interdependent Durations

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Author Info
Bo Honore () (Department of Economics, Princeton University)
Aureo de Paula () (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)
Abstract

This paper studies the identification of a simultaneous equation model where the variable of interest is a duration measure. It proposes a game theoretic model in which durations are determined by strategic agents. In the absence of strategic motives, the model delivers a version of the generalized accelerated failure time model. In its most general form, the system resembles a classical simultaneous equation model in which endogenous variables interact with observable and unobservable exogenous components to characterize a certain economic environment. In this paper, the endogenous variables are the individually chosen equilibrium durations. Even though a unique solution to the game is not always attainable in this context, the structural elements of the economic system are shown to be semiparametrically point identified. We also present a brief discussion of estimation ideas and a set of simulation studies on the model.

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Paper provided by Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania in its series PIER Working Paper Archive with number 08-007.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 19 Feb 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:08-007

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Related research
Keywords: duration empirical games identification

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - General
C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Frijters, Paul, 2002. "The non-parametric identification of lagged duration dependence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 289-292, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Horowitz, Joel L. & Lee, Sokbae, 2004. "Semiparametric estimation of a panel data proportional hazards model with fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 155-198, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Honore, Bo E, 1990. "Simple Estimation of a Duration Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 453-73, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Honore, Bo E, 1993. "Identification Results for Duration Models with Multiple Spells," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(1), pages 241-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Roger W. Klein & Robert P. Sherman, 2002. "Shift Restrictions and Semiparametric Estimation in Ordered Response Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 663-691, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Heckman, James J, 1978. "Dummy Endogenous Variables in a Simultaneous Equation System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(4), pages 931-59, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Lee, Myoung-jae, 1992. "Median regression for ordered discrete response," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 59-77. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Coppejans, Mark, 2007. "On efficient estimation of the ordered response model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 577-614, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Heckman, James J & Borjas, George J, 1980. "Does Unemployment Cause Future Unemployment? Definitions, Questions and Answers from a Continuous Time Model of Heterogeneity and State Dependence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(187), pages 247-83, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Frederiksen, Anders & Honore, Bo E. & Hu, Luojia, 2007. "Discrete time duration models with group-level heterogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 1014-1043, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Geert Ridder & Tiemen M. Woutersen, 2003. "The Singularity of the Information Matrix of the Mixed Proportional Hazard Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1579-1589, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Sokbae 'Simon' Lee, 2003. "Estimating panel data duration models with censored data," CeMMAP working papers CWP13/03, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
  19. Elbers, Chris & Ridder, Geert, 1982. "True and Spurious Duration Dependence: The Identifiability of the Proportional Hazard Model," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(3), pages 403-09, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Rosholm, Michael & Svarer, Michael, 2001. "Structurally dependent competing risks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 169-173, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Bresnahan, Timothy F. & Reiss, Peter C., 1991. "Empirical models of discrete games," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1-2), pages 57-81. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Chunrong Ai, 1997. "A Semiparametric Maximum Likelihood Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 933-964, July.
  23. Andreas Park & Lones Smith, 2006. "Caller Number Five: Timing Games that Morph from One Form to Another," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1554, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  24. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2003. "The Nonparametric Identification of Treatment Effects in Duration Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1491-1517, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Bergin, James & MacLeod, W Bentley, 1993. "Continuous Time Repeated Games," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(1), pages 21-37, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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