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Interdependent Durations

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  • Bo Honore

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Princeton University)

  • Aureo de Paula

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

This paper studies the identification of a simultaneous equation model where the variable of interest is a duration measure. It proposes a game theoretic model in which durations are determined by strategic agents. In the absence of strategic motives, the model delivers a version of the generalized accelerated failure time model. In its most general form, the system resembles a classical simultaneous equation model in which endogenous variables interact with observable and unobservable exogenous components to characterize a certain economic environment. In this paper, the endogenous variables are the individually chosen equilibrium durations. Even though a unique solution to the game is not always attainable in this context, the structural elements of the economic system are shown to be semiparametrically point identified. We also present a brief discussion of estimation ideas and a set of simulation studies on the model.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania in its series PIER Working Paper Archive with number 08-007.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 19 Feb 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:08-007

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Keywords: duration; empirical games; identification;

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References

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  1. Elie Tamer, 2003. "Incomplete Simultaneous Discrete Response Model with Multiple Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(1), pages 147-165, January.
  2. Ridder, Geert, 1990. "The Non-parametric Identification of Generalized Accelerated Failure-Time Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(2), pages 167-81, April.
  3. Arthur Lewbel, 2002. "Ordered Response Threshold Estimation," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 535, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 29 Oct 2003.
  4. Lee, M.J., 1990. "Median Regression For Ordered Discrete Response," Papers 9-90-11, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  5. Honore, Bo E, 1990. "Simple Estimation of a Duration Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 453-73, March.
  6. Horowitz, Joel L. & Lee, Sokbae, 2004. "Semiparametric estimation of a panel data proportional hazards model with fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 155-198, March.
  7. Elbers, Chris & Ridder, Geert, 1982. "True and Spurious Duration Dependence: The Identifiability of the Proportional Hazard Model," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 403-09, July.
  8. Heckman, James J & Borjas, George J, 1980. "Does Unemployment Cause Future Unemployment? Definitions, Questions and Answers from a Continuous Time Model of Heterogeneity and State Dependence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(187), pages 247-83, August.
  9. Lee, Sokbae, 2008. "Estimating Panel Data Duration Models With Censored Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(05), pages 1254-1276, October.
  10. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460 Elsevier.
  11. Chen, Songnian & Khan, Shakeeb, 2003. "Rates of convergence for estimating regression coefficients in heteroskedastic discrete response models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 245-278, December.
  12. Andreas Park & Lones Smith, 2006. "Caller Number Five: Timing Games that Morph from One Form to Another," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1554, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  13. Frijters, Paul, 2002. "The non-parametric identification of lagged duration dependence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 289-292, May.
  14. Chunrong Ai, 1997. "A Semiparametric Maximum Likelihood Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 933-964, July.
  15. Michael Rosholm & Michael Svarer, . "Structurally Dependent Competing Risks," Economics Working Papers 2000-11, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  16. Honore, Bo E, 1993. "Identification Results for Duration Models with Multiple Spells," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 241-46, January.
  17. Bergin, James & MacLeod, W Bentley, 1993. "Continuous Time Repeated Games," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(1), pages 21-37, February.
  18. Coppejans, Mark, 2007. "On efficient estimation of the ordered response model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 577-614, April.
  19. Simon, Leo K. & Stinchcombe, Maxwell B., 1987. "Extensive From Games in Continuous Time: Pure Strategies," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt03x115sh, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  20. Bresnahan, Timothy F. & Reiss, Peter C., 1991. "Empirical models of discrete games," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1-2), pages 57-81.
  21. Geert Ridder & Tiemen Woutersen, 2002. "The Singularity of the Information Matrix of the Mixed Proportional Hazard Model," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 20026, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  22. de Paula, Áureo, 2009. "Inference in a synchronization game with social interactions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 56-71, January.
  23. Heckman, James J, 1978. "Dummy Endogenous Variables in a Simultaneous Equation System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(4), pages 931-59, July.
  24. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2003. "The Nonparametric Identification of Treatment Effects in Duration Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1491-1517, 09.
  25. Anders Frederiksen & Bo E. Honoré & Luojia Hu, 2006. "Discrete Time Duration Models with Group-level Heterogeneity," Discussion Papers 05-008, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  26. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
  27. Roger W. Klein & Robert P. Sherman, 2002. "Shift Restrictions and Semiparametric Estimation in Ordered Response Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 663-691, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Aureo de Paula, 2012. "Econometric analysis of games with multiple equilibria," CeMMAP working papers CWP29/12, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  2. Áureo de Paula & Xun Tang, 2012. "Inference of Signs of Interaction Effects in Simultaneous Games With Incomplete Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(1), pages 143-172, 01.
  3. Pierre-Andre Chiappori & Ivana Komunjer, 2008. "Correct Specification and Identification of Nonparametric Transformation Models," Working Papers 2009-003, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.

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