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Inference in a Synchronization Game with Social Interactions

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  • Aureo de Paula

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

This paper studies inference in a continuous-time game where an agent’s decision to quit an activity depends on the participation of other players. In equilibrium, similar actions can be explained not only by direct influences, but also by correlated factors. Our model can be seen as a simultaneous duration model with multiple decision makers and interdependent durations. We study the problem of determining existence and uniqueness of equilibrium stopping strategies in this setting. This paper provides results and conditions for the detection of these endogenous effects. First, we show that the presence of such effects is a necessary and sufficient condition for simultaneous exits. This allows us to set up a nonparametric test for the presence of such influences which is robust to multiple equilibria. Second, we provide conditions under which parameters in the game are identified. Finally, we apply the model to data on desertion in the Union Army during the American Civil War and find evidence of endogenous influences.

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File URL: http://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/07-017.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania in its series PIER Working Paper Archive with number 07-017.

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Length: 53 pages
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2004
Date of revision: 01 May 2007
Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:07-017

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Keywords: duration models; social interactions; empirical games; optimal stopping;

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References

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  1. Markus K Brunnermeier & John Morgan, 2004. "Clock Games: Theory and Experiments," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000401, UCLA Department of Economics.
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  7. Brock, William A. & Durlauf, Steven N., 2001. "Interactions-based models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 54, pages 3297-3380 Elsevier.
  8. Zvi Eckstein & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 1989. "The Specification and Estimation of Dynamic Stochastic Discrete Choice Models: A Survey," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 24(4), pages 562-598.
  9. Berg, G.J. & Lindeboom, M. & Ridder, G., 1993. "Attrition in longitudinal panel data, and the empirical analysis of dynamic labour market behaviour," Serie Research Memoranda 0014, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  10. Francesco Squintani & Hugo Hopenhayn, 2005. "Preemption Games with Private Information," 2005 Meeting Papers 80, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. McManus, Douglas A., 1992. "How common is identification in parametric models?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 5-23.
  12. Pakes, Ariel & Pollard, David, 1989. "Simulation and the Asymptotics of Optimization Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1027-57, September.
  13. Scheinkman, Jose A. & Zariphopoulou, Thaleia, 2001. "Optimal Environmental Management in the Presence of Irreversibilities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 180-207, January.
  14. Ju, Nengjiu, 1998. "Pricing an American Option by Approximating Its Early Exercise Boundary as a Multipiece Exponential Function," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 627-46.
  15. Manski, Charles F, 1993. "Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 531-42, July.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bo E. Honor & �ureo De Paula, 2010. "Interdependent Durations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 77(3), pages 1138-1163.
  2. Franco Peracchi & Claudio Rossetti, 2013. "The heterogeneous thresholds ordered response model: identification and inference," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 176(3), pages 703-722, 06.
  3. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf, 2010. "Adoption Curves and Social Interactions," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(1), pages 232-251, 03.
  4. Steven N. Durlauf & Yannis M. Ioannides, 2009. "Social Interactions," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0739, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  5. Ethan Cohen-Cole & Andrei Kirilenko & Eleonora Patacchini, 2010. "Are Networks Priced? Network Topology and Order Trading Strategies in High Liquidity Markets," EIEF Working Papers Series 1011, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Apr 2010.
  6. ÖZGÜR, Onur & BISIN, Alberto, 2011. "Dynamic Linear Economies with Social Interactions," Cahiers de recherche 04-2011, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  7. ÖZGÜR, Onur, 2010. "Local Interactions," Cahiers de recherche 2010-06, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  8. Bo Honoré & Áureo de Paula, 2011. "Interdependent Durations in Joint Retirement," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2011-5, Center for Retirement Research, revised Feb 2011.
  9. Bo E. Honore & Aureo de Paula, 2007. "Interdependent Durations, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-044, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Nov 2008.
  10. Onur Ozgur & Alberto Bisin, 2011. "Dynamic linear economies with social interactions," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000036, David K. Levine.
  11. Aureo de Paula, 2012. "Econometric analysis of games with multiple equilibria," CeMMAP working papers CWP29/12, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  12. Seth Richards-Shubik, 2012. "Peer Effects in Sexual Initiation: Separating Demand and Supply Mechanisms," PIER Working Paper Archive 12-015, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  13. Bo E. Honoré & Aureo de Paula, 2009. ""Interdependent Durations" Third Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-039, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Feb 2008.

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