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Preemption Games with Private Information

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Author Info

  • Francesco Squintani
  • Hugo Hopenhayn

    ()
    (Economics University College London)

Abstract

Preemption games are widely used to model economic problems such as patent races. We introduce private information into these games and allow for this information to stochastically change over time. This reflects, e.g. how R&D competitors improve their innovations over time and keep these innovations secret before patenting them. The analysis initially appears intractable because of the complexity of the equilibrium updating of beliefs on opponents' information. However, we demonstrate the existence of a class of equilibria and calculate these equilibria in closed form. We find that the expected durations in these equilibria are longer than when players' information is public but, in some cases, shorter than in the collusive outcome. Hence, R&D secrecy slows down innovation disclosure. Copyright 2011, Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2005 Meeting Papers with number 80.

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Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:red:sed005:80

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Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Christian Zimmermann Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PO Box 442 St. Louis MO 63166-0442 USA
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Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/society.htm
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Related research

Keywords: timing games; patent races; private information;

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Cited by:
  1. Ufuk Akcigit & Qingmin Liu, 2011. "The Role of Information in Competitive Experimentation," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000321, David K. Levine.
  2. Morgan, John, 2004. "Clock Games: Theory and Experiments," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt81m0r0jj, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  3. Bobtcheff, Catherine & Mariotti, Thomas, 2012. "Potential competition in preemption games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 53-66.
  4. Bobtcheff, Catherine & Bolte, Jérôme & Mariotti, Thomas, 2013. "Researcher's Dilemma," IDEI Working Papers 763, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  5. Francis Bloch & Simona Fabrizi & Steffen Lippert, 2011. "Learning and Collusion in New Markets with Uncertain Entry Costs," Working Papers 1112, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2011.
  6. Godfrey Keller & Sven Rady, 2013. "Breakdowns," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000635, David K. Levine.
  7. Aureo de Paula, 2004. "Inference in a Synchronization Game with Social Interactions," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-017, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 May 2007.
  8. Ufuk Akcigit & Qingmin Liu, 2011. "The Role of Information in Competitive Experimentation," NBER Working Papers 17602, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Smirnov, Vladimir & Wait, Andrew, 2013. "Innovation in a generalized timing game," Working Papers 2013-16, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
  10. Ufuk Akcigit & Qingmin Liu, 2011. "The Role of Information in Competitive Experimentation," PIER Working Paper Archive 11-038, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.

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