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Preemption Games with Private Information

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  • Hugo A. Hopenhayn
  • Francesco Squintani

Abstract

Preemption games are widely used to model economic problems such as patent races. We introduce private information into these games and allow for this information to stochastically change over time. This reflects, e.g. how R&D competitors improve their innovations over time and keep these innovations secret before patenting them. The analysis initially appears intractable because of the complexity of the equilibrium updating of beliefs on opponents' information. However, we demonstrate the existence of a class of equilibria and calculate these equilibria in closed form. We find that the expected durations in these equilibria are longer than when players' information is public but, in some cases, shorter than in the collusive outcome. Hence, R&D secrecy slows down innovation disclosure. Copyright 2011, Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal The Review of Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 78 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 667-692

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Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:78:y:2011:i:2:p:667-692

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Cited by:
  1. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Morgan, John, 2010. "Clock games: Theory and experiments," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 532-550, March.
  2. Ufuk Akcigit & Qingmin Liu, 2011. "The Role of Information in Competitive Experimentation," NBER Working Papers 17602, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Bobtcheff, Catherine & Bolte, Jérôme & Mariotti, Thomas, 2013. "Researcher's Dilemma," IDEI Working Papers 763, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  4. Smirnov, Vladimir & Wait, Andrew, 2013. "Innovation in a generalized timing game," Working Papers 2013-16, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
  5. Ufuk Akcigit & Qingmin Liu, 2011. "The Role of Information in Competitive Experimentation," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000321, David K. Levine.
  6. Bobtcheff, Catherine & Mariotti, Thomas, 2012. "Potential competition in preemption games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 53-66.
  7. Francis Bloch & Simona Fabrizi & Steffen Lippert, 2011. "Learning and Collusion in New Markets with Uncertain Entry Costs," Working Papers 1112, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2011.
  8. Keller, Godfrey & Rady, Sven, 0. "Breakdowns," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society.
  9. de Paula, Áureo, 2009. "Inference in a synchronization game with social interactions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 56-71, January.
  10. Ufuk Akcigit & Qingmin Liu, 2011. "The Role of Information in Competitive Experimentation," PIER Working Paper Archive 11-038, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.

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