IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v69y2016icp68-88.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain housing market crashes?

Author

Listed:
  • Diks, Cees
  • Wang, Juanxi

Abstract

Like stock market prices, housing prices often exhibit temporary booms and busts. A possible explanation for the observed abrupt changes is offered by the stochastic catastrophe model. This paper addresses the question whether the catastrophe model can describe and predict the dynamics of housing markets. We fit a stochastic cusp catastrophe model to empirical housing market data for six OECD countries, US, JP, UK, NL, SE and BE. Two different estimation approaches are considered – Cobb׳s method and Euler discretization. The analysis shows that while Cobb׳s approach describes the long-run stationary density better, Euler discretization is more tailored for time series, as it provides better one-step-ahead predictions. Proceeding using the Euler discretization method we discuss the dynamics of housing markets in terms of the multiple equilibria cusp catastrophe model. By considering the long-term interest rate as an exogenous variable we obtain new insights into the policy implications of interest rate levels, in particular concerning the stability of housing markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Diks, Cees & Wang, Juanxi, 2016. "Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain housing market crashes?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 68-88.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:69:y:2016:i:c:p:68-88
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2016.05.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188916300690
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jedc.2016.05.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Shiller, 2015. "Irrational Exuberance," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 3, number 10421.
    2. Lange Rense & Oliva Terence A. & McDade Sean R., 2000. "An Algorithm for Estimating Multivariate Catastrophe Models: GEMCAT II," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(3), pages 1-34, October.
    3. Bolt, Wilko & Demertzis, Maria & Diks, Cees & Hommes, Cars & Leij, Marco van der, 2019. "Identifying booms and busts in house prices under heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 234-259.
    4. Han L. J. van der Maas & Rogier Kolstein & Joop van der Pligt, 2003. "Sudden Transitions in Attitudes," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 32(2), pages 125-152, November.
    5. Anufriev, Mikhail & Branch, William A., 2009. "Introduction to special issue on complexity in economics and finance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1019-1022, May.
    6. John B. Taylor, 2007. "Housing and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 463-476.
    7. Morris A. Davis, 2010. "housing and the business cycle," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Robert J Shiller, 2008. "Historic Turning Points in Real Estate," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 1-13, Winter.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    10. Crowe, Christopher & Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni & Igan, Deniz & Rabanal, Pau, 2013. "How to deal with real estate booms: Lessons from country experiences," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 300-319.
    11. John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2008. "Housing markets and the economy: the assessment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(1), pages 1-33, spring.
    12. Boswijk, H. Peter & Hommes, Cars H. & Manzan, Sebastiano, 2007. "Behavioral heterogeneity in stock prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1938-1970, June.
    13. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2015. "Heterogeneous expectations, boom-bust housing cycles, and supply conditions: A nonlinear dynamics approach," BERG Working Paper Series 99, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    14. Hommes,Cars, 2015. "Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107564978.
    15. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    16. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding recent trends in house prices and homeownership," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 89-123.
    17. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
    18. Robert J. Shiller, 2012. "The Subprime Solution: How Today’s Global Financial Crisis Happened, and What to Do about It: With a new preface by the author," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9853.
    19. Bolt, Wilko & Demertzis, Maria & Diks, Cees & Hommes, Cars & Leij, Marco van der, 2019. "Identifying booms and busts in house prices under heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 234-259.
    20. Shi, Song & Jou, Jyh-Bang & Tripe, David, 2014. "Can interest rates really control house prices? Effectiveness and implications for macroprudential policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 15-28.
    21. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    22. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 16, pages 402-438, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    23. Roy Kouwenberg & Remco C J Zwinkels, 2015. "Endogenous Price Bubbles in a Multi-Agent System of the Housing Market," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-10, June.
    24. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding recent trends in house prices and homeownership," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 89-123.
    25. Shiller Robert J., 2006. "Long-Term Perspectives on the Current Boom in Home Prices," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 1-11, March.
    26. Yoshida, Nakahiro, 1992. "Estimation for diffusion processes from discrete observation," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 220-242, May.
    27. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
    28. Roberto Dieci & Frank Westerhoff, 2012. "A simple model of a speculative housing market," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 303-329, April.
    29. Grasman, Raoul & van der Maas, Han L.J. & Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan, 2009. "Fitting the Cusp Catastrophe in R: A cusp Package Primer," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 32(i08).
    30. Zeeman, E. C., 1974. "On the unstable behaviour of stock exchanges," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-49, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Martin, Carolin & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2021. "Heterogeneous expectations, housing bubbles and tax policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 555-573.
    2. Martin, Carolin & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2022. "Housing Markets, Expectation Formation And Interest Rates," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 491-532, March.
    3. Huang, Wencheng & Zhang, Rui & Xu, Minhao & Yu, Yaocheng & Xu, Yifei & De Dieu, Gatesi Jean, 2020. "Risk state changes analysis of railway dangerous goods transportation system: Based on the cusp catastrophe model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    4. Bolt, Wilko & Demertzis, Maria & Diks, Cees & Hommes, Cars & Leij, Marco van der, 2019. "Identifying booms and busts in house prices under heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 234-259.
    5. Dieci, Roberto & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2018. "Interactions between stock, bond and housing markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 43-70.
    6. Bolgorian, Meysam, 2019. "Can a cusp catastrophe model describe the effect of sanctions on exchange rates?," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2017. "On the bimodality of the distribution of the S&P 500's distortion: Empirical evidence and theoretical explanations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 34-53.
    8. Martin Carolin & Westerhoff Frank, 2019. "Regulating Speculative Housing Markets via Public Housing Construction Programs: Insights from a Heterogeneous Agent Model," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(4), pages 627-660, August.
    9. Kukacka, Jiri & Barunik, Jozef, 2017. "Estimation of financial agent-based models with simulated maximum likelihood," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 21-45.
    10. Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2018. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Finance," Research Paper Series 389, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    11. Mostafa, Mohamed M., 2022. "Five decades of catastrophe theory research: Geographical atlas, knowledge structure and historical roots," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, J., 2015. "Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain housing market crashes?," CeNDEF Working Papers 15-12, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    2. Hommes, Cars & Vroegop, Joris, 2019. "Contagion between asset markets: A two market heterogeneous agents model with destabilising spillover effects," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 314-333.
    3. Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2018. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Finance," Research Paper Series 389, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. Martin, Carolin & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2021. "Heterogeneous expectations, housing bubbles and tax policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 555-573.
    5. Bolt, Wilko & Demertzis, Maria & Diks, Cees & Hommes, Cars & Leij, Marco van der, 2019. "Identifying booms and busts in house prices under heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 234-259.
    6. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2016. "Heterogeneous expectations, boom-bust housing cycles, and supply conditions: A nonlinear economic dynamics approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 21-44.
    7. Martin, Carolin & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2022. "Housing Markets, Expectation Formation And Interest Rates," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 491-532, March.
    8. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2015. "Heterogeneous expectations, boom-bust housing cycles, and supply conditions: A nonlinear dynamics approach," BERG Working Paper Series 99, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    9. Ling Zhang & Wenlong Bian & Hao Zhang, 2019. "Dissecting the myth of the house price in Chinese metropolises: allowing for behavioral heterogeneity among investors," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(4), pages 721-740, December.
    10. Saskia ter Ellen & Willem F.C. Verschoor, 2017. "Heterogeneous beliefs and asset price dynamics: a survey of recent evidence," Working Paper 2017/22, Norges Bank.
    11. Noemi Schmitt & Frank Westerhoff, 2022. "Speculative housing markets and rent control: insights from nonlinear economic dynamics," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(1), pages 141-163, January.
    12. Kukacka, Jiri & Barunik, Jozef, 2017. "Estimation of financial agent-based models with simulated maximum likelihood," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 21-45.
    13. Saskia ter Ellen & Willem F. C. Verschoor, 2018. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Price Dynamics: A Survey of Recent Evidence," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Fredj Jawadi (ed.), Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics, pages 53-79, Springer.
    14. Zheng, Min & Wang, Hefei & Wang, Chengzhang & Wang, Shouyang, 2017. "Speculative behavior in a housing market: Boom and bust," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 50-64.
    15. Chen, Zhenxi, 2016. "Regimes dependent speculative trading: Evidence from the United States housing market," FinMaP-Working Papers 66, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    16. Bofinger, Peter & Debes, Sebastian & Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric, 2013. "Monetary policy transmission in a model with animal spirits and house price booms and busts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2862-2881.
    17. Dieci, Roberto & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2018. "Interactions between stock, bond and housing markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 43-70.
    18. Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2015. "Managing rational routes to randomness," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 157-173.
    19. Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2021. "Trend followers, contrarians and fundamentalists: Explaining the dynamics of financial markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 117-136.
    20. ter Ellen, Saskia & Hommes, Cars H. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2021. "Comparing behavioural heterogeneity across asset classes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 747-769.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stochastic catastrophe; Housing market; Instability; Multiple equilibria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:69:y:2016:i:c:p:68-88. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.