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Historic Turning Points in Real Estate

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Abstract

This paper looks for markers of ends of real estate booms or busts. The changes in market psychology and related indicators that occurred at real estate market turning points in the United States since the 1980s are compared with changes at turning points in the more distant past. In all these episodes changes in an atmosphere of optimism about the future course of home prices, changes in public interpretation of the boom, as well as evidence of supply response to the high prices of a boom, are noted.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d16a/d1610.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1610.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2007
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Eastern Economic Journal (Winter 2008), 34(1): 1-13
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1610

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Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Phone: (203) 432-3702
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Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Keywords: Home prices; Boom; Bubble; Regime change; Stock market; California; Florida;

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Cited by:
  1. Edward L. Glaeser, 2013. "A Nation Of Gamblers: Real Estate Speculation And American History," NBER Working Papers 18825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Eugene N. White, 2009. "Lessons from the Great American Real Estate Boom and Bust of the 1920s," NBER Working Papers 15573, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Eli Beracha & Hilla Skiba, 2011. "Momentum in Residential Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 299-320, October.
  4. Edward L. Glaeser, 2013. "A Nation of Gamblers: Real Estate Speculation and American History," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 1-42, May.
  5. Kevin J. Lansing, 2008. "Speculative growth and overreaction to technology shocks," Working Paper Series 2008-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. McDuff, DeForest, 2011. "Demand substitution across US cities: Observable similarity and home price correlation," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 1-14, July.

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