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Comparing behavioural heterogeneity across asset classes

Author

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  • Saskia ter Ellen

    (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

  • Cars H. Hommes

    (University of Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute)

  • Remco C.J. Zwinkels

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute)

Abstract

We estimate a generic agent-based model in which agents have heterogeneous beliefs about the future price to see to what extent behaviour differs across assets, and what this implies for market stability. We find evidence for behavioural heterogeneity for all asset classes, except for equities. Heterogeneity is especially pronounced for macro-economic variables. Agents update their beliefs frequently in financial markets, and only gradually in the case of macro-economic variables. Consequently, we find that the probability of behavioural bubbles is substantially higher for the macro-economic variables than for financial assets.

Suggested Citation

  • Saskia ter Ellen & Cars H. Hommes & Remco C.J. Zwinkels, 2017. "Comparing behavioural heterogeneity across asset classes," Working Paper 2017/12, Norges Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2017_12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Martin, Carolin & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2021. "Heterogeneous expectations, housing bubbles and tax policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 555-573.
    2. Bolt, Wilko & Demertzis, Maria & Diks, Cees & Hommes, Cars & Leij, Marco van der, 2019. "Identifying booms and busts in house prices under heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 234-259.
    3. Pelster, Matthias & Hofmann, Annette, 2018. "About the fear of reputational loss: Social trading and the disposition effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 75-88.
    4. Li, Xiao-Ping & Zhou, Chun-Yang & Tong, Bin, 2019. "Carry trades, agent heterogeneity and the exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 343-358.
    5. Filippo Gusella, 2022. "Detecting And Measuring Financial Cycles In Heterogeneous Agents Models: An Empirical Analysis," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 25(02n03), pages 1-22, March.
    6. Anufriev, Mikhail & Chernulich, Aleksei & Tuinstra, Jan, 2018. "A laboratory experiment on the heuristic switching model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 21-42.
    7. Saskia ter Ellen & Willem F.C. Verschoor, 2017. "Heterogeneous beliefs and asset price dynamics: a survey of recent evidence," Working Paper 2017/22, Norges Bank.
    8. Chernulich, Aleksei, 2021. "Modelling reference dependence for repeated choices: A horse race between models of normalisation," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. Filippo Gusella & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2022. "A State-Space Approach for Time-Series Prediction of an Heterogeneous Agent Model," Working Papers - Economics wp2022_20.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial markets; heterogeneous expectations; market stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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