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Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices

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  1. Maryniak, Paweł & Trück, Stefan & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "Carbon pricing and electricity markets — The case of the Australian Clean Energy Bill," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 45-58.
  2. Afanasyev, Dmitriy & Fedorova, Elena, 2015. "The long-term trends on Russian electricity market: comparison of empirical mode and wavelet decompositions," MPRA Paper 62391, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Nowotarski, Jakub & Raviv, Eran & Trück, Stefan & Weron, Rafał, 2014. "An empirical comparison of alternative schemes for combining electricity spot price forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 395-412.
  4. Weron, Rafał & Zator, Michał, 2015. "A note on using the Hodrick–Prescott filter in electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-6.
  5. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
  6. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Rafał Weron, 2015. "Forecasting of daily electricity prices with factor models: utilizing intra-day and inter-zone relationships," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 805-819, September.
  7. Fanelli, Viviana & Maddalena, Lucia & Musti, Silvana, 2016. "Modelling electricity futures prices using seasonal path-dependent volatility," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 92-102.
  8. I A Eckley & G P Nason, 2018. "A test for the absence of aliasing or local white noise in locally stationary wavelet time series," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 105(4), pages 833-848.
  9. Lago, Jesus & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & De Schutter, Bart & Weron, Rafał, 2021. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A review of state-of-the-art algorithms, best practices and an open-access benchmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
  10. Bannör, Karl & Kiesel, Rüdiger & Nazarova, Anna & Scherer, Matthias, 2016. "Parametric model risk and power plant valuation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 423-434.
  11. Д.О. Афанасьев1 & * & Е.А. Федорова2 & **, 2019. "Краткосрочное Прогнозирование Цены Электроэнергии На Российском Рынке С Использованием Класса Моделей Scarx," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 55(1), pages 68-84, январь.
  12. Jakub Nowotarski, 2013. "Short-term forecasting of electricity spot prices using model averaging (Krótkoterminowe prognozowanie spotowych cen energii elektrycznej z wykorzystaniem uśredniania modeli)," HSC Research Reports HSC/13/17, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  13. Wei Wei & Asger Lunde, 2020. "Identifying Risk Factors and Their Premia: A Study on Electricity Prices," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/20, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  14. Frömmel, Michael & Han, Xing & Kratochvil, Stepan, 2014. "Modeling the daily electricity price volatility with realized measures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 492-502.
  15. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Part II — Probabilistic forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 171-182.
  16. Marie Bessec & Julien Fouquau & Sophie Meritet, 2016. "Forecasting electricity spot prices using time-series models with a double temporal segmentation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(5), pages 361-378, January.
  17. Yan, Guan & Trück, Stefan, 2020. "A dynamic network analysis of spot electricity prices in the Australian national electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
  18. Kriechbaumer, Thomas & Angus, Andrew & Parsons, David & Rivas Casado, Monica, 2014. "An improved wavelet–ARIMA approach for forecasting metal prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 32-41.
  19. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2016. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 228-235.
  20. Luigi Grossi & Fany Nan, 2017. "Forecasting electricity prices through robust nonlinear models," Working Papers 06/2017, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
  21. Pawel Maryniak & Rafal Weron, 2014. "Forecasting the occurrence of electricity price spikes in the UK power market," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/11, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  22. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafal Weron, 2017. "Importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting revisited: Neural network models," HSC Research Reports HSC/17/03, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  23. Patrick Hénaff & Ismail Laachir & Francesco Russo, 2018. "Gas Storage Valuation and Hedging: A Quantification of Model Risk," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-27, March.
  24. Jakub Nowotarski & Jakub Tomczyk & Rafal Weron, 2013. "Modeling and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of the EEX and Nord Pool spot prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/13/02, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  25. Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2020. "Probabilistic electricity price forecasting with NARX networks: Combine point or probabilistic forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 466-479.
  26. Afanasyev, Dmitriy O. & Fedorova, Elena A., 2019. "On the impact of outlier filtering on the electricity price forecasting accuracy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 196-210.
  27. Francisco Javier Duque-Pintor & Manuel Jesús Fernández-Gómez & Alicia Troncoso & Francisco Martínez-Álvarez, 2016. "A New Methodology Based on Imbalanced Classification for Predicting Outliers in Electricity Demand Time Series," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-10, September.
  28. Pawel Maryniak & Stefan Trueck & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Carbon pricing, forward risk premiums and pass-through rates in Australian electricity futures markets," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/10, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  29. Tommaso Proietti & Niels Haldrup & Oskar Knapik, 2017. "Spikes and memory in (Nord Pool) electricity price spot prices," CEIS Research Paper 422, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 18 Dec 2017.
  30. Nadja Klein & Michael Stanley Smith & David J. Nott, 2020. "Deep Distributional Time Series Models and the Probabilistic Forecasting of Intraday Electricity Prices," Papers 2010.01844, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
  31. Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting with NARX neural networks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1520-1532.
  32. Wang, Zheng-Xin & Wang, Zhi-Wei & Li, Qin, 2020. "Forecasting the industrial solar energy consumption using a novel seasonal GM(1,1) model with dynamic seasonal adjustment factors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
  33. Ida Bakke & Stein-Erik Fleten & Lars Ivar Hagfors & Verena Hagspiel & Beate Norheim & Sonja Wogrin, 2016. "Investment in electric energy storage under uncertainty: a real options approach," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 483-500, July.
  34. Janczura, Joanna & Trück, Stefan & Weron, Rafał & Wolff, Rodney C., 2013. "Identifying spikes and seasonal components in electricity spot price data: A guide to robust modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 96-110.
  35. Joanna Janczura, 2014. "Pricing electricity derivatives within a Markov regime-switching model: a risk premium approach," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 79(1), pages 1-30, February.
  36. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13532 is not listed on IDEAS
  37. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
  38. Xuguang Yu & Gang Li & Chuntian Cheng & Yongjun Sun & Ran Chen, 2019. "Research and Application of Continuous Bidirectional Trading Mechanism in Yunnan Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-18, December.
  39. Luigi Grossi & Fany Nan, 2018. "The influence of renewables on electricity price forecasting: a robust approach," Working Papers 2018/10, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
  40. Arkadiusz Jędrzejewski & Grzegorz Marcjasz & Rafał Weron, 2021. "Importance of the Long-Term Seasonal Component in Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting Revisited: Parameter-Rich Models Estimated via the LASSO," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-17, June.
  41. Russo, Marianna & Bertsch, Valentin, 2020. "A looming revolution: Implications of self-generation for the risk exposure of retailers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
  42. Grossi, Luigi & Nan, Fany, 2019. "Robust forecasting of electricity prices: Simulations, models and the impact of renewable sources," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 305-318.
  43. Caldana, Ruggero & Fusai, Gianluca & Roncoroni, Andrea, 2017. "Electricity forward curves with thin granularity: Theory and empirical evidence in the hourly EPEXspot market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 261(2), pages 715-734.
  44. Yuze Li & Shangrong Jiang & Xuerong Li & Shouyang Wang, 2022. "Hybrid data decomposition-based deep learning for Bitcoin prediction and algorithm trading," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, December.
  45. Manner, Hans & Alavi Fard, Farzad & Pourkhanali, Armin & Tafakori, Laleh, 2019. "Forecasting the joint distribution of Australian electricity prices using dynamic vine copulae," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 143-164.
  46. Afanasyev, Dmitriy O. & Fedorova, Elena A., 2016. "The long-term trends on the electricity markets: Comparison of empirical mode and wavelet decompositions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 432-442.
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