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Subjective Probability Assessment in Decision Analysis: Partition Dependence and Bias Toward the Ignorance Prior

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  1. Rae, Andrew & Alexander, Rob & McDermid, John, 2014. "Fixing the cracks in the crystal ball: A maturity model for quantitative risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 67-81.
  2. Marine Hainguerlot & Thibault Gajdos & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud & Vincent de Gardelle, 2023. "How Overconfidence Bias Influences Suboptimality in Perceptual Decision Making," Post-Print hal-04197403, HAL.
  3. Ellison, Martin & Macaulay, Alistair, 2021. "A rational inattention unemployment trap," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
  4. Eric Johnson & Suzanne Shu & Benedict Dellaert & Craig Fox & Daniel Goldstein & Gerald Häubl & Richard Larrick & John Payne & Ellen Peters & David Schkade & Brian Wansink & Elke Weber, 2012. "Beyond nudges: Tools of a choice architecture," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 487-504, June.
  5. Samuel D. Bond & Kurt A. Carlson & Ralph L. Keeney, 2008. "Generating Objectives: Can Decision Makers Articulate What They Want?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(1), pages 56-70, January.
  6. Simon Kloker & Tim Straub & Christof Weinhardt, 2019. "Moderators for Partition Dependence in Prediction Markets," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 723-756, August.
  7. Enrico Diecidue & Dolchai La-ornual, 2009. "Reconciling support theory and the book-making principle," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 173-190, June.
  8. Els Hannes & Diana Kusumastuti & Maikel Espinosa & Davy Janssens & Koen Vanhoof & Geert Wets, 2012. "Mental maps and travel behaviour: meanings and models," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 143-165, April.
  9. Feng, Zhiyu & Liu, Yukun & Wang, Zhen & Savani, Krishna, 2020. "Let’s choose one of each: Using the partition dependence effect to increase diversity in organizations," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 11-26.
  10. Marttunen, Mika & Belton, Valerie & Lienert, Judit, 2018. "Are objectives hierarchy related biases observed in practice? A meta-analysis of environmental and energy applications of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 265(1), pages 178-194.
  11. David Tannenbaum & Craig R. Fox & Gülden Ülkümen, 2017. "Judgment Extremity and Accuracy Under Epistemic vs. Aleatory Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(2), pages 497-518, February.
  12. Sarah K. Jacobi & Benjamin F. Hobbs, 2007. "Quantifying and Mitigating the Splitting Bias and Other Value Tree-Induced Weighting Biases," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(4), pages 194-210, December.
  13. David Tannenbaum & Craig R. Fox & Gülden Ülkümen, 2017. "Judgment Extremity and Accuracy Under Epistemic vs. Aleatory Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(2), pages 497-518, February.
  14. Lionel Page & Robert T. Clemen, 2013. "Do Prediction Markets Produce Well‐Calibrated Probability Forecasts?-super-," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(568), pages 491-513, May.
  15. Daniel J. Benjamin, 2018. "Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases," NBER Working Papers 25200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Daniel J. Benjamin & Don A. Moore & Matthew Rabin, 2017. "Biased Beliefs About Random Samples: Evidence from Two Integrated Experiments," NBER Working Papers 23927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Bo Cowgill & Eric Zitzewitz, 2015. "Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Firm X," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(4), pages 1309-1341.
  18. Markus Eyting & Patrick Schmidt, 2019. "Belief Elicitation with Multiple Point Predictions," Working Papers 1818, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 16 Nov 2020.
  19. Nader T. Tavassoli & Matteo Visentin, 2022. "To buy or how much to buy? Partition dependence in purchase-quantity decisions," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 177-188, June.
  20. Zhengqiu Zhu & Bin Chen & Sihang Qiu & Rongxiao Wang & Feiran Chen & Yiping Wang & Xiaogang Qiu, 2018. "An Extended Chemical Plant Environmental Protection Game on Addressing Uncertainties of Human Adversaries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, March.
  21. Eyting, Markus & Schmidt, Patrick, 2021. "Belief elicitation with multiple point predictions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
  22. Daniel J. Walters & Philip M. Fernbach & Craig R. Fox & Steven A. Sloman, 2017. "Known Unknowns: A Critical Determinant of Confidence and Calibration," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(12), pages 4298-4307, December.
  23. Zhou, Wenhui & Wan, Qiang & Zhang, Ren-Qian, 2017. "Choosing among hospitals in the subsidized health insurance system of China: A sequential game approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 257(2), pages 568-585.
  24. Baratgin, Jean, 2009. "Updating our beliefs about inconsistency: The Monty-Hall case," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 67-95, January.
  25. Botzen, W.J.W. & van den Bergh, J.C.J.M., 2012. "Risk attitudes to low-probability climate change risks: WTP for flood insurance," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 151-166.
  26. Lionel Page, 2012. "‘It ain’t over till it's over.’ Yogi Berra bias on prediction markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 81-92, January.
  27. Sarah A. Kusumastuti & Jim Blythe & Heather Rosoff & Richard S. John, 2020. "Behavioral Determinants of Target Shifting and Deterrence in an Analog Cyber‐Attack Game," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(3), pages 476-493, March.
  28. Robert J. Batt & Jordan D. Tong, 2020. "Mean Service Metrics: Biased Quality Judgment and the Customer–Server Quality Gap," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 22(5), pages 975-995, September.
  29. Robert F. Bordley, 2009. "Combining the Opinions of Experts Who Partition Events Differently," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(1), pages 38-46, March.
  30. Gilberto Montibeller & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 2015. "Cognitive and Motivational Biases in Decision and Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(7), pages 1230-1251, July.
  31. Ilke Aydogan, 2021. "Prior Beliefs and Ambiguity Attitudes in Decision from Experience," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(11), pages 6934-6945, November.
  32. Johannes G. Jaspersen & Gilberto Montibeller, 2015. "Probability Elicitation Under Severe Time Pressure: A Rank‐Based Method," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(7), pages 1317-1335, July.
  33. Yang, Jie & Zhao, Daozhi & Wang, Zeyu & Xu, Chunqiu, 2022. "Impact of regulation on on-demand ride-sharing service: Profit-based target vs demand-based target," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
  34. Riege, Anine H. & Teigen, Karl Halvor, 2013. "Additivity neglect in probability estimates: Effects of numeracy and response format," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 41-52.
  35. Chenmu Xing & Katherine Williams & Jamie Hom & Meghana Kandlur & Praise Owoyemi & Joanna Paul & Ray Alexander & Elizabeth Shackney & Hilary Barth, 2020. "Partition dependence in financial aid distribution to income categories," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(4), pages 1-13, April.
  36. Niels Bugert & Rainer Lasch, 2023. "Analyzing upstream and downstream risk propagation in supply networks by combining Agent-based Modeling and Bayesian networks," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 93(5), pages 859-889, July.
  37. Robert T. Clemen & Canan Ulu, 2008. "Interior Additivity and Subjective Probability Assessment of Continuous Variables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(4), pages 835-851, April.
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